Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
American Superconductor Corp. (AMSC)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.98-8.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.29 → 1.29 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMSC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS above $0.07 for Q1 2026 | Profit rises with EPS above $0.07. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $0.06 in Q1 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.06 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.07 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMSC is an execution-led industrial growth business, with recent financial performance strong but earnings quality neutral and overall risk high. The long-term thesis is intact, though a recent earnings miss and a headwind from the sector backdrop make the near-term picture less settled.
The valuation evidence describes AMSC as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 35% premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.33, so the signals are mixed. The valuation score has fallen, but the evidence does not show that all business and sector risks are reflected in expectations.
Near-term revenue execution is strong: revenue reached $94.1 million in 2026-Q1, above management’s $85 million priority. Non-GAAP net income, a profit measure that excludes certain items, was $7.6 million, just below the $8 million goal; a recent earnings miss and an industry prone to uneven results remain risks.
The multi-year view depends on revenue growth continuing and quarterly profit reaching management’s stated goal. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while continued strong results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
Over one to three years, AMSC has evidence of improving revenue execution, but profit delivery and sector conditions remain important uncertainties. The thesis is intact, with medium confidence and high risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income is improving but not yet at $8M target. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below $4M in Q1 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue above $85M for Q1 2026 | A primary condition in American Superconductor Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=85 USD_MILLIONS. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $65M in Q1 2026 | Revenue: $94.038M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=85 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202694,038,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount vs peers (PE ~10 vs peer median ~31) | A supporting condition in American Superconductor Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 15. | Intact | PE rises above 20 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 7.61x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 20267.6127 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.41 → $1.29 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.34 | $417,400,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.41 | $418,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.34 | $417,400,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.41 | $417,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.41 | $417,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.41 | $417,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.35 | $420,300,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.35 | $423,550,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.35 | $423,550,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.28 | $419,240,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.29 | $421,840,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.