Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$2.95 → $2.95 · observed estimates
Amentum (AMTM)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.37-3.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.95 → 2.95 EPS · FY ending Oct 3, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMTM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations strengthens to at least $225 million in Q2 2026 | Cash from operations grew strongly to $225 million, supporting financial health. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $57 million in Q2 2026 | Cash from operations: $146M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $225 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026146,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$2.95 → $2.95 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 23, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a stable growth thesis with a focus on maintaining revenue and improving margins. The current state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral and confidence has shifted to medium.
The market appears to price AMTM as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the current fundamentals and the lack of recent fragility signals.
Management is on track with priorities to grow revenue, enhance operating income, and strengthen cash flow. Despite a low probability of missing earnings, recent trends show a downward trajectory in earnings surprises, which could pose risks.
Key factors for AMTM's future include guidance updates from management and performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive or negative shifts in these companies could significantly impact AMTM's trajectory.
Overall, AMTM's outlook remains cautious as it navigates a challenging environment while focusing on growth and operational improvements. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net cash provided by operating activities was driven by strong cash earnings, disciplined working capital management, and reflects one additional pay cycle compared to the prior year quarter.” “Net cash provided by operating activities was driven by strong cash earnings, disciplined working capital management, and benefited from one less pay cycle compared to the prior year quarter.”
Operating income improves to at least $151 million in Q2 2026 | Amentum improves profit with operating income rising to $151 million in Q2 2026. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $110 million in Q2 2026 | Operating income: $172M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $151 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026172,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue near $14.3 billion in FY26 | Revenue guidance is steady near $14.3 billion for FY26. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $13.95 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $3.49B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$14.275 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20263,490,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.49B → $14.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.95 | $14,485,931,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.95 | $14,485,971,038 | 4 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.