Amentum (AMTM)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.06-0.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMTM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended Credit Agreement On April 24, 2026, Amentum Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Amentum”), entered into the First Amendment (the “First Amendment”), dated as of such date, among Amentum, Amentum Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Amentum Services”), Amentum Technology, Inc., a Tennessee corporation (“Amentum Technology”), the other loan parties party thereto, the lenders party thereto, the issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan…
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and efficiency. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $172 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $150 million. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is critical for maintaining investor confidence. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue of $3.49 billion shows no growth or declines year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $3.5 billion. This shows recovery and growth.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue. It also shows demand for Amentum's services.
Supportive ifBacklog increases beyond $47.8 billion in Q2.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or remains below $47.8 billion in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is vital for Amentum's financial health. A dip could raise concerns.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is under $200 million. This may lead to cash issues.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is over $200 million. This shows strong operational health.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $427 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,698 loss on $10,000 · 47.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is key for Amentum's financial health and growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $146 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains below $146 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up by over 10%, it shows good performance and cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 10% each year.
Worry ifOperating income goes up by less than 10% each year.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows future revenue potential. A strong backlog helps Amentum grow.
Supportive ifBacklog grows more than 7% year-over-year.
Worry ifBacklog growth is less than 7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company runs more efficiently. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 7.9%. This shows the company is improving its margins.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is under 7.9%. This shows there are some operational issues.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports financial health and growth initiatives.
Supportive ifFree cash flow is over $220 million. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $220 million, raising liquidity concerns.
Why it matters: Nuclear contracts are a key growth area. New wins could boost future revenues.
Supportive ifNew nuclear energy contracts are announced. They are worth more than $500 million.
Worry ifNo new nuclear contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal challenges in maintaining the growth trajectory. Investors will want to see if the company can sustain its performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 2% compared to last year. This shows possible problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 2% year-over-year, showing strong performance.
Why it matters: Winning big contracts in nuclear energy would support Amentum's growth plan. It would help revenue and backlog.
Supportive ifAmentum has new nuclear energy contracts. These contracts are worth over $500 million.
Worry ifNo big nuclear energy contracts in the next quarter shows a slowdown.
Why it matters: Falling short of free cash flow guidance could raise concerns about cash generation capabilities. This is critical for funding growth and managing debt.
Worry ifFree cash flow for FY 2026 is reported below $525 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow meets or exceeds $525 million, indicating strong cash generation.