Amentum (AMTM)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.23-0.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
AMTM — officer change
Dated 2026-10-02
Executive Chair — Steven J. Demetriou: The filing discloses an amendment to an existing employment agreement regarding compensation and severance terms, not a change in personnel or departure.
Why it matters: The next report is the first scheduled check after Amentum cut its revenue range. It can show whether earnings and cash flow stay on plan.
Watch forOn November 23, Amentum keeps its updated FY2026 ranges or raises them.
Also watch forOn November 23, Amentum cuts its updated revenue, EBITDA, EPS, or free cash flow range.
Why it matters: Amentum reported positive free cash flow in Q2 and Q3 after a cash outflow in Q1. The full-year range tests whether that rebound lasts.
Watch forFY2026 free cash flow reaches at least $525 million, the low end of the guided range.
Also watch forFY2026 free cash flow falls below $525 million.
Why it matters: Amentum raised its EBITDA range after Q3. Results above its new high end would show further earnings strength.
Supportive ifFY2026 adjusted EBITDA tops $1.14 billion, above the updated high end.
Worry ifFY2026 adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.115 billion, the updated low end.
Why it matters: Amentum cut its revenue range after Q3. A result below $13.8 billion would miss the new low end.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue comes in below $13.8 billion, the low end of the updated range.
Less concerning ifFY2026 revenue reaches at least $13.8 billion and stays within the updated range of $13.8 billion to $13.95 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $404 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,172 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Backlog grew to $48.2 billion, and recent bookings exceeded sales. A ratio below 1.0x would point to weaker new awards.
Watch forQ4 book-to-bill is at least 1.0x, with total backlog at or above $48.2 billion.
Also watch forQ4 book-to-bill falls below 1.0x and total backlog drops below $48.2 billion.