Aemetis Inc (AMTX)

NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04

$1.25+8.70%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aemetis Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMTX yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improvement in Low Carbon Fuel Standard revenues	The company secured $1.1 billion in bonds to boost low carbon fuel revenues.	Improving	No material improvement in Low Carbon Fuel Standard revenues by late 2026	LCFS revenue $22.4M vs qualitative target Aemetis received $22.4M from LCFS credit sale and secured $1.1B bond plan, reinforcing revenue growth. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $54.6 million by FY26	A primary condition in Aemetis Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=54.6 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $54.6 million in FY26	Revenue: $62.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=54.6 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202662,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execution of $80 million share repurchase program	It also started a share buyback program up to $80 million.	Intact	Share repurchase program is halted or materially delayed in 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.48

$-0.59 → $-0.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.36B

$0.40B → $0.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-26	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-27	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-29	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-30	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-31	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-01	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-03	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-04	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-05	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-07	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-08	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-09	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-10	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-11	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-12	$-0.59	$386,613,680	3 / 4
2026-08-13	$-0.59	$386,613,680	3 / 4
2026-08-14	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-15	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-16	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-17	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-18	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-19	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-20	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-21	$-0.55	$398,051,746	3 / 3
2026-08-22	$-0.48	$394,111,746	3 / 3
2026-08-23	$-0.48	$394,111,746	3 / 3
2026-08-24	$-0.48	$394,111,746	3 / 3
2026-08-25	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-26	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-27	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-28	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-29	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-30	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-31	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-01	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-02	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-03	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-04	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-05	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-06	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-07	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-08	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-09	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-10	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-11	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-12	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-13	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-14	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-15	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-16	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-17	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-18	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-19	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-20	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-21	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-22	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-23	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-24	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-25	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-26	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-27	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-28	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-29	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-30	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-01	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-02	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-03	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-04	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-05	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-06	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-07	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-08	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-09	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-10	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-11	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-12	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-13	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-14	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-15	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-16	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-17	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-18	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-19	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-20	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-21	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-22	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-23	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-24	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-25	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-26	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-27	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-28	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-29	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-30	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-31	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-01	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-02	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-03	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-04	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	1
2026-11-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Revenue reaches at least $54.6 million by FY26Revenue: $62.7M
Execution of $80 million share repurchase programQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aemetis Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making renewable fuels and ethanol business with some operational improvement, rather than an established profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: LCFS revenue growth and better California Ethanol results are encouraging, but overall recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Aemetis Inc

The valuation evidence points to AMTX being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. That suggests expectations may already be subdued, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain; the evidence also shows low fragility in what is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results may remain uneven: AMTX had an earnings miss in May and a beat in August, and its estimated miss risk is 37%, with small-company size and erratic surprises adding uncertainty. Over the multi-year view, LCFS revenue and Dairy RNG volume have grown, while California Ethanol gross profit improved and operating losses narrowed; the overall risk label has nevertheless risen to high.

What Aemetis Inc hinges on

The thesis depends on continued LCFS growth, successful dairy digester expansion, and further improvement in California Ethanol cash flow and profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers such as LIN, ECL, and SHW could respectively support or weaken the Materials-sector tailwind.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMTX has credible operating progress but remains loss-making, high-risk, and below its industry cohort, leaving the multi-year thesis on watch. Its strength depends on execution and sector conditions, with valuation evidence uncertain. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.48

$-0.59 → $-0.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.36B

$0.40B → $0.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-26	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-27	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-29	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-30	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-07-31	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-01	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-03	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-04	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-05	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-07	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-08	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-09	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-10	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-11	$-0.59	$398,138,680	3 / 4
2026-08-12	$-0.59	$386,613,680	3 / 4
2026-08-13	$-0.59	$386,613,680	3 / 4
2026-08-14	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-15	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-16	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-17	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-18	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-19	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-20	$-0.54	$407,910,946	3 / 3
2026-08-21	$-0.55	$398,051,746	3 / 3
2026-08-22	$-0.48	$394,111,746	3 / 3
2026-08-23	$-0.48	$394,111,746	3 / 3
2026-08-24	$-0.48	$394,111,746	3 / 3
2026-08-25	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-26	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-27	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-28	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-29	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-30	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-08-31	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-01	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-02	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-03	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-04	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-05	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-06	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-07	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-08	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-09	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-10	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-11	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-12	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-13	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-14	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-15	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-16	$-0.48	$380,015,250	3 / 3
2026-09-17	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-18	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-19	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-20	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-21	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-22	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-23	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-24	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-25	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-26	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-27	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-28	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-29	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-09-30	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-01	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-02	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-03	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-04	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-05	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-06	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-07	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-08	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-09	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-10	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-11	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-12	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-13	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-14	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-15	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-16	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-17	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-18	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-19	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-20	$-0.48	$380,151,112	3 / 3
2026-10-21	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-22	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-23	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-24	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-25	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-26	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-27	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-28	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-29	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-30	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-10-31	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-01	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-02	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-03	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3
2026-11-04	$-0.48	$364,551,112	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings