Aemetis Inc (AMTX)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.73+38.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -64.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 39.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 103.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 33 industry peers
AMTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. This Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall be deemed “furnished” and not “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be incorpo…
Why it matters: RNG sales rose 38% year over year in Q2. Faster growth would support the plan to expand dairy gas sales.
Supportive ifQ3 RNG sales exceed 146,900 MMBtu, up more than 38% from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 RNG sales are flat or lower than the same quarter in 2025.
Why it matters: Q2 biodiesel sales fell after Indian oil buyers made no new purchases. A rise would show tender shipments resumed.
Supportive ifQ3 India biodiesel sales top $2.5 million, and the company reports new OMC orders.
Worry ifQ3 India biodiesel sales stay at or below $2.5 million, with no new OMC orders.
Why it matters: The project aims to replace about 80% of fossil gas used at the plant. Startup would mark progress on ethanol costs.
Supportive ifThe Keyes MVR system enters operation by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe system is not running by year-end, or the company reports another delay.
Why it matters: The new digesters can add to RNG output. A delay would slow the buildout plan.
Supportive ifThe company says both planned dairy digesters were running by the end of Q3.
Worry ifOne or both digesters are not yet running after Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$328 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $847 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,858 loss on $10,000 · 68.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.