Aemetis Inc (AMTX)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.830.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 51.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 110.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Aemetis, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. This Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall be deemed “furnished” and not “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be incorpo…
Why it matters: Continued growth in Dairy RNG sales shows demand and operational success. It supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifDairy RNG sales volume grows year over year by more than 30%.
Worry ifDairy RNG sales volume growth is less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the upgrade could improve production and lower costs.
Supportive ifThe upgrade at the Keyes ethanol plant is completed on schedule in 2026.
Worry ifThe upgrade faces delays or cost overruns beyond the planned budget.
Why it matters: If the materials sector grows, it may boost Aemetis's results. This shows a possible recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after a year of decline.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. This shows that the sector is still shrinking.
Why it matters: Good financing is needed for growth and obligations. It affects future operations.
Watch forManagement says it will get at least $10 million for growth projects.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in financing efforts are reported in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$345 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $847 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,148 loss on $10,000 · 61.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Financing is key for Aemetis' growth plans. Good financing helps with expansion and improvements.
Watch forManagement says they have funding for the Keyes ethanol plant.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays in financing for the Keyes ethanol plant.
Why it matters: New biogas pathways can increase revenue through Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits.
Supportive ifAt least two new biogas pathways receive approval before Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new biogas pathways receive approval by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that Aemetis is getting better in the market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 25% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 15% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Announcing share buybacks shows trust in the company's worth. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifAemetis announces a share repurchase of at least $20 million within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher revenues from LCFS would help Aemetis grow and make more money.
Supportive ifLCFS revenues increase by at least 20% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifLCFS revenues decrease or grow less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: More LCFS pathway approvals can boost revenue from low carbon fuel credits.
Supportive ifAt least two additional LCFS pathways receive approval.
Worry ifNo new LCFS pathways are approved in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow in this segment helps the company's overall profits.
Supportive ifThe California Ethanol segment made money in Q3.
Worry ifThe California Ethanol segment lost money in Q3.
Why it matters: New digesters help increase Dairy RNG production.
Supportive ifTwo new dairy digesters are now working well.
Worry ifCommissioning of new digesters is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifManagement announces share buybacks worth more than $20 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.