Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American Well Corp (AMWL)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.11-1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMWL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain and extend partnership with Elevance Health | The company keeps a key partnership with Elevance Health to support growth. | Intact | Loss or non-renewal of Elevance Health partnership | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The multi-year view is intact, with improving adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, but revenue delivery remains mixed.
The valuation evidence points to AMWL as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative, meaning expectations are slightly ahead of what the evidence supports. The valuation score rose recently, but model confidence is low, so this signal is uncertain; priced-in fragility is low.
Near term, revenue performance is mixed: management maintained and raised its 2026 guidance, while quarterly revenue fell from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed substantially, and operating cash flow improved, but the business remains loss-making and has not yet reached positive cash flow. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, while the latest earnings beat offers some support.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether management can deliver its 2026 revenue outlook and reach positive operating cash flow in Q4, while continuing to reduce adjusted EBITDA losses. Near-term conditions could worsen if guidance is cut or job growth weakens; continued strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMWL’s improving profitability measures support an intact thesis, but uneven revenue and continued losses leave execution as the main test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management targets Q2 2026 revenue between $48 million and $52 million. |
| Intact |
| Q2 2026 revenue falls below $48 million |
Revenue: $48.991M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $48 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202648,991,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue near $200 million | American Well aims to stabilize revenue near $200 million in 2026. | Intact | Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $195 million | Revenue: $48.991M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $195 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202648,991,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.68 → $-1.88 · observed estimates
$0.21B → $0.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.26 | $208,634,952 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.68 | $208,634,950 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.58 | $208,903,970 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.58 | $208,903,970 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.58 | $208,903,970 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.58 | $208,903,970 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.58 | $209,304,820 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.58 | $209,619,110 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.58 | $209,619,110 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.98 | $209,621,344 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.10 | $210,575,237 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.10 | $210,576,251 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.88 | $211,426,665 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.