American Well Corp (AMWL)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.11-1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMWL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMWL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, American Well Corporation (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. The Company's Earnings Report is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company will host a conference call to discuss its financial results today at 5 p.m. ET. The call can be accessed via a live audio webcast at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/b826q95…
Why it matters: The DHA's intent to make Amwell a prime contractor is not the same as a full award. Enterprise deployment could support the platform's growth.
Supportive ifThe DHA names Amwell as the main contractor. It confirms deployment across the enterprise.
Worry ifThe DHA does not choose Amwell for enterprise deployment. Or the relationship ends without similar terms.
Why it matters: Amwell set Q3 revenue guidance at $46 million to $48 million. A miss would weaken its raised 2026 revenue outlook.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $46 million, or full-year revenue guidance falls below $200 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $46 million and full-year guidance stays at $200 million to $205 million.
Why it matters: Amwell kept its 2026 visit goal despite visits falling from 1.1 million in Q1 to 0.8 million in Q2. A miss would put that goal in doubt.
Worry ifFull-year AMG visits are below 1.32 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFull-year AMG visits reach at least 1.32 million and stay within the 1.32 million to 1.37 million range.
Why it matters: Management set positive operating cash flow as a Q4 goal. Reaching it would mark progress beyond recent cash use.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 operating cash flow is above zero.
Worry ifQ4 2026 cash flow from operating activities is zero or below.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $551 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,124 loss on $10,000 · 21.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.