Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$157.59-7.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.94 → 12.90 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ANF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS near $10.6 in fiscal 2026 | Profit margins are guided near 12%, supporting earnings. | Broken | EPS falls below $10.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $4.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$10.6 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 20264.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ANF is a consumer-discretionary growth business with a record of consistent sales growth, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact and has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though the evidence carries medium confidence.
Valuation is roughly aligned with peers, and the market’s expectations appear broadly aligned with the business outlook. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually stretched expectations gap.
Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2026 sales-growth and share-repurchase priorities, while capital spending progress is mixed. Recent earnings beats and 15 consecutive quarters of sales growth support the multi-year thesis, but a past deep earnings miss and a trend of declining surprises remain risks.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. Over the near term, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers TJX, ROST, and BURL would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ANF’s thesis rests on sustaining sales growth and management execution while navigating elevated risk and shifts in consumer-discretionary momentum. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Abercrombie & Fitch's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 5% YoY revenue growth. |
| Broken |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 4.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3% to 5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 20264.809774 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain operating margin near 12% in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Abercrombie & Fitch's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% operating margin. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 11% in FY26 | Operating margin: 19.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 202619.949648 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.72 → $12.90 · observed estimates
$5.65B → $5.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.72 | $5,651,839,474 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.84 | $5,639,252,800 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.84 | $5,639,252,800 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.72 | $5,650,366,716 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.79 | $5,655,197,314 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.79 | $5,655,197,314 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.79 | $5,655,195,842 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.79 | $5,655,195,842 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.79 | $5,655,195,842 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.79 | $5,655,195,842 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.79 | $5,655,195,842 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.67 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.67 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.67 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.67 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.85 | $5,767,818,838 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.94 | $5,769,373,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.95 | $5,776,323,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.95 | $5,776,323,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.95 | $5,776,323,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.95 | $5,776,323,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.95 | $5,776,323,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.95 | $5,776,323,102 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.89 | $5,777,749,591 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.90 | $5,776,687,125 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.