Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$149.67+4.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ANF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ANF — director transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Director — Mary Fox: The filing discloses the appointment of a new non-associate director to expand the board size, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach $450 million by year-end.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall short of $450 million.
Why it matters: A rise in EMEA sales would show better demand in a tough market. It shows the company can adapt to local issues.
Watch forEMEA sales growth reported positive year over year.
Also watch forEMEA sales decline reported year over year.
Why it matters: This call will provide updates on financial performance and outlook.
Watch forPositive guidance or results shared during the earnings call.
Also watch forNegative guidance or results shared during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Weakness in EMEA hurt overall results. An improvement shows better demand in the region.
Supportive ifEMEA segment shows year-over-year sales growth in Q2.
Worry ifThe EMEA segment still shows a drop in sales compared to last year in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$220 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $503 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,565 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This level of investment reflects commitment to growth and expansion. It shows how the company is positioning itself for the future.
Watch forCapital spending was at or over $250 million.
Also watch forCapital spending was under $200 million.
Why it matters: Achieving this margin is essential to meet the full-year target of 12% to 12.5%.
Supportive ifOperating margin reported at or above 10% for Q2.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 9% for Q2.
Why it matters: This range is crucial for maintaining the overall earnings growth narrative.
Supportive ifQ2 net income per diluted share reported between $1.80 and $2.00.
Worry ifQ2 net income per diluted share reported below $1.80.
Why it matters: This growth range confirms the company’s ability to maintain momentum after a strong Q2. It will show if the growth trend continues amid sector challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth reported between 5% to 6%.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 5%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows a commitment to giving cash to shareholders. It also shows management believes in the business.
Supportive ifQ3 share repurchases reported at $100 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 share buybacks were below $100 million.
Why it matters: This margin range shows good cost management and profit. It shows how well the company runs and can affect future plans.
Supportive ifOperating margin was between 13% and 14% for Q3.
Worry ifThe operating margin was less than 13%.