Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ANGEL STUDIOS INC (ANGX)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.31-9.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ANGX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital raising to fund growth initiatives | A supporting condition in ANGEL STUDIOS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Capital raised supports growth without excessive dilution. | Intact | Capital raising leads to dilution without growth or worsens financial health | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story rather than an established durable compounder, because the company is still loss-making and risk is elevated. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: Guild growth and improving adjusted EBITDA are constructive, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
Valuation is about 1.07 times the peer level, with expectations broadly aligned rather than showing a clear gap. The priced-in signal is marked justified, and no fragility gates fired, but confidence in the overall assessment is low.
Near-term, Guild membership and revenue have grown quickly, and the first-half adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed; management has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 loss target. However, recent earnings have been erratic, and the evidence notes misses across recent quarters, so execution remains uncertain.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued Guild growth and whether theatrical releases help attract members, alongside further progress in reducing losses. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing interest rates or stronger results from sector peers could provide a more favorable backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year view is a high-risk growth thesis with encouraging Guild momentum but unresolved profitability and execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ANGEL STUDIOS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.52 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS loss worsens or remains flat beyond FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.52 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-0.129 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to sustain above 40% annually | A primary condition in ANGEL STUDIOS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=43% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 30% in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Revenue growth from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration of acquisitions and partnerships | Recent acquisitions and partnerships support growth. | Improving | Acquisitions fail to contribute or cause operational disruption | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.36 → $-0.23 · observed estimates
$0.59B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.36 | $594,936,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.34 | $597,296,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.34 | $632,721,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.34 | $632,721,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.34 | $632,721,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.24 | $647,101,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.24 | $647,101,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.24 | $647,101,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.23 | $629,326,583 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.23 | $650,701,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.23 | $655,718,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.23 | $652,760,167 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.