ANGEL STUDIOS INC (ANGX)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.31-9.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ANGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 117.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers
ANGX — restructuring
Dated 2026-04-10
Other Events Angel Studios, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), expects to report revenue for the first quarter of 2026 in the range of $105.0 million to $109.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA (as defined below) for the first quarter of 2026 in the range of $(4.0) million to $(6.0) million. These preliminary financial estimates are based on the Company’s current expectations and may be adjusted as a result of, among other things, the completion of customary quarter-end close review proc…
Why it matters: Guild members rose 17.6% in Q2, and Guild fees made up 81.2% of revenue. Slower growth could weaken the main source of sales.
Watch forQ3 paying Guild members rise more than 17.6% from the Q2 count of 2.61 million.
Also watch forQ3 paying Guild members rise less than 17.6% from the Q2 count of 2.61 million, or decline.
Why it matters: The October 1 event notice points to an earlier merger deal. A closing update would show whether that deal moves ahead.
Watch forAngel files a notice that the Toothy Cow merger has closed.
Also watch forAngel files a notice saying the Toothy Cow merger ended or faced a major delay.
Why it matters: Angel kept its full-year loss limit at $25 million. First-half Adjusted EBITDA loss was $7.7 million, but Q2 alone was a loss of $11.7 million.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss is more than $25 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss is $25 million or less.
Why it matters: Gross margin fell to about 54% in Q2 from 69% a year earlier. Angel linked much of the drop to lower theater revenue in the mix.
Watch forQ3 gross margin rises above 54%.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin is 54% or lower.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $866 loss on $10,000 · 8.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,667 loss on $10,000 · 66.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.