ANGEL STUDIOS INC (ANGX)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.58+2.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ANGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 40.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 98.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ANGX — restructuring
Dated 2026-04-10
Other Events Angel Studios, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), expects to report revenue for the first quarter of 2026 in the range of $105.0 million to $109.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA (as defined below) for the first quarter of 2026 in the range of $(4.0) million to $(6.0) million. These preliminary financial estimates are based on the Company’s current expectations and may be adjusted as a result of, among other things, the completion of customary quarter-end close review proc…
Why it matters: New movie releases could lead to more Guild memberships.
Watch forGuild membership goes up a lot after a new film comes out.
Also watch forGuild membership growth does not rise after movie releases.
Why it matters: The acquisition could enhance market position. Success here may lead to better financials.
Supportive ifThere are positive updates on the acquired company. It may help revenue.
Worry ifThere is bad news about the acquisition process. There are challenges with integration.
Why it matters: New partnerships could enhance content offerings and drive membership growth.
Supportive ifA new partnership was announced. It will help share more content.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced. This may show slow growth.
Why it matters: A slowdown in membership growth could signal challenges in attracting new users.
Worry ifAngel Guild membership growth is under 10% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifMembership growth is over 10% from last quarter. This shows strong engagement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$293 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $997 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,638 loss on $10,000 · 86.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The stock issuance can impact capital and investor sentiment. Clarity is needed on its use.
Watch forDetails on how the proceeds from the stock sale will be used to support growth.
Also watch forNo clear plan for the use of proceeds is provided.
Why it matters: Completing this offering would improve cash flow and help support growth.
Supportive ifThe public offering will close successfully on or before April 13, 2026.
Worry ifThe public offering is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: These releases are expected to drive Guild membership and revenue growth.
Watch forAt least four of the seven planned movies do better than box office goals.
Also watch forLess than four of the planned releases meet box office expectations.
Why it matters: Using raised money well can help growth plans and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifThe Company reports good results from the $30 million raised in the public offering.
Worry ifThe Company does not show good use of the $30 million raised, hurting growth plans.
Why it matters: Surpassing 3 million members would show strong momentum and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifGuild membership exceeds 3 million by the next earnings report.
Worry ifGuild membership growth stalls below 2.85 million.
Why it matters: This funding could help with growth plans and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifThe Company will use the $30 million raised. This money will help improve operations or grow.
Worry ifThe capital raise does not lead to clear improvements in cash flow or growth.
Why it matters: Smaller losses mean better financial health. They also show more efficient operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss was below $20 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss is still above $25 million.
Why it matters: Continued strong revenue growth would confirm the success of the Angel Guild model.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew over 140% from last year. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 100% from last year. This may show problems.
Why it matters: News about the acquisition can show growth and market chances.
Supportive ifConfirmation that the acquisition is on track to close as planned.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with the acquisition.
Why it matters: Successful releases can help Guild grow its membership and revenue. This supports the business model.
Watch forAt least three of the seven planned releases make over $10 million at the box office.
Also watch forNone of the theatrical releases exceed $5 million at the box office.