Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (AOMR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.17-4.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.41 → 1.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AOMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.32 per share | Angel Oak Mortgage REIT aims to maintain its $0.32 dividend per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.32 per share | Dividend per share: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: dividend = $0.32 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. May 5, 20260.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AOMR is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with an income focus, rather than a clear durable compounder. Its thesis state is watch, with the signal recently shifting from cautious to mixed; recent results remain below its industry cohort.
Valuation is neutral, with AOMR roughly in line with peers and medium model confidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, but fragility is low because the evidence points to weak execution quality rather than a broader stack of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the risk of an earnings miss is elevated, and the company has missed in recent quarters. The latest evidence is mixed: net income improved from a loss in Q1 2026 to a gain in Q2 while revenue stayed stable, and the $0.32 dividend was maintained; securitization activity also continued. These trends support progress, but earnings quality remains fragile.
Over the next year, lower rates could support AOMR and the broader real estate sector. The thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance or sector peers report missed results or softer outlooks. Management’s continued focus on earnings, the dividend, and securitizations is relevant, but the evidence on improving earnings remains mixed.
The 1-to-3-year view is mixed, with recent operational progress countered by fragile earnings quality and a meaningful risk of another near-term miss. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management focuses on improving net income despite recent losses. |
| Improving |
| net income remains negative through FY26 |
Net income: $-16.673M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income > $0 by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-16,673,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize revenue decline | A supporting condition in Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline limited to less than -10% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -10% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Effective execution of share buyback program | A supporting condition in Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is material buybacks completed in FY26. | Intact | no meaningful buybacks executed by FY26 | Buyback executed vs target May 2026 stock repurchase agreement with Xylem Finance LLC confirms active share buyback execution. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.40 → $1.33 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.41 | $48,782,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.41 | $48,782,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.40 | $47,442,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.43 | $46,292,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.43 | $46,292,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.43 | $46,292,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.43 | $46,292,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.43 | $46,292,740 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.44 | $44,200,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.44 | $47,632,750 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.41 | $46,198,379 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.41 | $46,271,979 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.41 | $46,271,979 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.41 | $46,271,979 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.41 | $46,271,979 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.41 | $46,271,979 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.41 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.33 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.33 | $45,953,112 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.