Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (AOMR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.31+0.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AOMR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. Also on August 4, 2026, the Company will hold a teleconference and audio webcast to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of t…
Why it matters: Management wants to increase net income. This shows they are recovering from past losses.
Supportive ifNet income shows a positive trend, moving above the recent low of -$7.38M.
Worry ifNet income continues to decline or remains negative.
Why it matters: Strong growth in net interest income shows the company's ability to generate earnings. This is key for sustaining dividends and improving net income.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth is below 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A lower ratio means better financial health and risk management. It shows the company's leverage plan.
Supportive ifRecourse debt to equity ratio drops below 1.0x after Q3 2026.
Worry ifRecourse debt to equity ratio remains above 1.0x after Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A good buyback shows that management believes in the company. This can help share prices.
Supportive ifThe company finishes a large part of the planned share buyback.
Worry ifThe company cancels or delays the share buyback program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $247 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,547 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net interest income is key for overall financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net interest income is over $12.1 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net interest income is under $12.1 million. This shows weakness.
Why it matters: An increase in net income would show continued recovery and growth in earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 net income was over $3.4 million. This shows ongoing improvement.
Worry ifNet income is under $3.4 million. This suggests stagnation or decline.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifA formal announcement of a $0.32 dividend for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend was declared. There may be a cut in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: PPI changes can affect interest rates. They also impact borrowing costs and mortgage markets.
Watch forPPI shows a big increase. This indicates possible inflation pressures.
Also watch forPPI goes down or stays the same. This suggests lower inflation and stable rates.