Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (AOMR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.17-4.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -66.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AOMR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter end September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. Also on November 3, 2026, the Company will hold a teleconference and audio webcast to discus its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.…
Why it matters: Q2 distributable earnings were $0.37 per share, above the dividend. A drop below $0.32 would weaken dividend coverage.
Worry ifQ3 earnings are below $0.32 per share, or the company cuts its dividend below $0.32 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings are at least $0.32 per share, and the company declares a $0.32 dividend.
Why it matters: Net interest income rose 8% from a year earlier in Q2, but fell from $12.1 million in Q1. Another drop would test the earnings-growth effort.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income is below $10.7 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest income is at least $10.7 million and year-over-year growth continues.
Why it matters: The amended rate spread range fell at the low end from 1.75% to 1.35%. Lower funding costs can support earnings if the company draws on this line.
Supportive ifA later filing confirms the facility spread stays at 1.35% to 4.75%. Q3 net interest income is at least $10.7 million.
Worry ifA filing reports a higher spread range, or Q3 net interest income falls below $10.7 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,323 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.