Artivion (AORT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.57-0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AORT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AORT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of Artivion’s reports or filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), whether made before or after the date hereof, except as expressly set forth by specific refer…
Why it matters: The launch is key for revenue growth and market position in aortic arch solutions.
Supportive ifThe NEXUS system launches on January 1, 2027, as planned.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed beyond January 1, 2027.
Why it matters: Delays could slow Artivion's growth plans and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifEndospan must be integrated successfully by the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifPublic announcement of integration delays or issues by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong enrollment shows progress. It means better product development and market growth.
Supportive ifThe number of people joining the ARTIZEN trial is higher than what management thought.
Worry ifEnrollment numbers for the ARTIZEN trial are lower than what was expected.
Why it matters: Stent graft sales are important for revenue growth. Strong sales show good market reach.
Supportive ifQ2 stent graft revenue growth exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 stent graft revenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $435 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,780 loss on $10,000 · 57.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More approvals will improve the product lineup and boost market strength.
Supportive ifFDA approval for more PMA programs related to NEXUS is announced.
Worry ifNo announcements of new FDA approvals for NEXUS PMA programs.
Why it matters: A lower estimate shows it is hard to keep profits while growing.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance revised down from the current range of $92 to $99 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays the same or goes up.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is $92 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $92 million for 2026.
Why it matters: How well Artivion integrates Endospan will show if it can grow with its products.
Supportive ifLook for good news about Endospan's NEXUS system in the next six months.
Worry ifWatch for reports of problems with integration or low performance of the NEXUS system.
Why it matters: Successful FDA updates are very important. They help with the upcoming product launch.
Supportive ifFDA gives good updates or approvals for NEXUS product sales.
Worry ifFDA delays or gives bad updates about NEXUS product sales.
Why it matters: The acquisition helps Artivion offer more products and improve its market position. Strong revenue from the NEXUS system would support this plan.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $120 million. This shows strong sales from the NEXUS system after the acquisition.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $110 million. This suggests weak sales or integration of the NEXUS system.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 7%, it may show weak demand or problems in execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 7% on a constant currency basis.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 11% on a constant currency basis.
Why it matters: The launch of NEXUS is key for revenue growth and expanding market share.
Supportive ifNEXUS product sales begin in January 2027 as planned.
Worry ifNEXUS launch is delayed beyond January 2027.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA growth may show problems with cost management or how well the company runs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth reported below 12% for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth meets or exceeds 20% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: More FDA approvals could improve product choices and help increase future revenue.
Supportive ifNew FDA approvals for pipeline products are announced.
Worry ifNo new FDA approvals are granted for pipeline products.