Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Ltd. (AOSL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.17-4.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.32 → 0.32 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AOSL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves from -$8M | A supporting condition in Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is positive cash flow. | Improving | Cash flow stays negative next year | Cash from operations: $-10.04M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: positive cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 2026-10,040,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AOSL is a high-risk recovery and growth case, not yet a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue has improved, but recent financial performance remains weak and the overall signal has shifted to mixed.
The valuation evidence points to AOSL being cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows a negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; this suggests the valuation does not assume an especially strong outlook, but does not remove execution risk.
Near term, management has delivered modest revenue growth, with revenue rising from $162.3 million in 2026-Q2 to $170.4 million in 2026-Q4. Operating losses improved sequentially in Q4 but remain worse than a year earlier, while cash used in operations increased, so profit and cash-flow progress is still uncertain. A guidance cut is a meaningful near-term risk, even though the snapshot rates the risk of a miss as quiet.
The multi-year view depends on whether Advanced Computing and improved product mix can sustain revenue growth while reducing operating losses and cash use. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but neither is assured.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AOSL’s thesis is a cautious recovery case with some revenue progress, but profitability and cash flow remain unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to keep gross margin near 22%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 20% next quarter |
Gross margin: 23.09% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 22.3%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 30, 202623.093719 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from -$14M | A primary condition in Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is improve toward break-even. | Broken | Operating income stays below -$10M next year | Operating income: $-10.987M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: improve toward break-even. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 2026-10,987,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $168M next quarter | It aims to stop revenue falling below $168M next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $164M next quarter | Revenue: $170.371M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$168M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 27, 2026170,371,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.54 → $0.32 · observed estimates
$0.84B → $0.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.54 | $837,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.32 | $777,362,500 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.