Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Ltd. (AOSL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.20+3.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AOSL — director transition
Dated 2026-07-10
Director — Mr. Joshua Chien: Appointment of Mr. Joshua Chien as an independent director.
Why it matters: New products could help grow revenue and improve market position.
Supportive ifNew products for AI and servers announced, boosting growth potential.
Worry ifNo new products announced shows a lack of innovation.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations is key for AOSL's finances. It helps fund growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was positive. This means the company is working better.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This shows the company has problems.
Why it matters: A worsening loss would indicate challenges in controlling costs. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifGAAP operating loss reported worse than $14.1 million.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating loss reported at or below $14.1 million.
Why it matters: Cutting operating losses is important for AOSL. It helps with profits and investor trust.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating loss was less than $4.8 million for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating loss was $4.8 million or more for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$406 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $841 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,566 loss on $10,000 · 55.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company runs more efficiently. This is important for long-term success.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was positive. It was better than a negative $8.3 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means the company is in good financial shape. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive after being negative in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative, showing ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for funding operations. It also supports growth plans.
Watch forCash flow from operations reported at $10 million or less for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
Also watch forCash flow from operations was above $10 million for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows that management expects slow growth. Hitting this target means revenue is stable.
Supportive ifActual revenue reported for Q4 is $168 million or higher.
Worry ifRevenue reported for Q4 is below $158 million.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue goals shows growth in key areas like Advanced Computing.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at $176 million or higher for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
Worry ifRevenue was below $166 million for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
Why it matters: This margin shows better profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifGAAP gross margin reported at 23.8% or higher for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported below 22.8% for Q1 ending September 30, 2026.