Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Ltd. (AOSL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.48-12.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
AOSL — director transition
Dated 2026-07-10
Director — Mr. Joshua Chien: Appointment of Mr. Joshua Chien as an independent director.
Why it matters: Management set a $176 million midpoint for fiscal Q1. A higher result would extend recent revenue growth.
Supportive ifOn November 5, fiscal Q1 revenue is above $176 million.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 revenue is below $166 million, the low end of guidance.
Why it matters: Management linked a richer product mix to higher margins. A result above the guidance midpoint would support that view.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 non-GAAP gross margin is above 24.5%.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 non-GAAP gross margin is below 23.5%, the low end of guidance.
Why it matters: A smaller cash outflow would show progress on a stated goal. Cash use rose from $8.3 million in fiscal Q3 to $10.0 million in fiscal Q4.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash flow used in operations is less than $10 million.
Worry ifQuarterly cash flow used in operations is $10 million or more.
Why it matters: The report tests the company's sales and margin targets. Missing both low ends would weaken the case for a near-term recovery.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 revenue is at least $166 million and non-GAAP gross margin is at least 23.5%.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q1 revenue is below $166 million and non-GAAP gross margin is below 23.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $817 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,030 loss on $10,000 · 60.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management said these areas drove recent strength. Continued gains would show that new products can offset weak PC demand.
Supportive ifManagement reports higher revenue from Advanced Computing and the Tier 1 U.S. smartphone customer than in fiscal Q4.
Worry ifManagement reports lower revenue from either area than in fiscal Q4. Or it cites weaker demand for both.