Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.95-13.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating performance in 2026 | Ampco-Pittsburgh aims to improve operating performance in 2026. | Intact | Operating performance deteriorates or fails to improve in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as AP seeks to improve its operations and financial performance. The current thesis state is cautious, with recent results showing weakness but some management priorities on track.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that AP is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation reflects a justified stance given the company's loss-making status and recent financial struggles.
Management has shown some success in increasing customer orders and improving operating performance, with adjusted EBITDA showing growth. However, the overall financial performance remains weak, which could pose risks in the near term.
The future of AP's performance hinges on the ability to maintain customer order growth and the impact of sector peers' earnings. If major players in the Industrials sector miss expectations, it could negatively affect AP's momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AP's trajectory will depend on its execution of management priorities and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| Revenue growth falls below 8% YoY next year |
Revenue growth: -9.01% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 8% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 11, 2026-9.005871 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Realize $7-8M annual EBITDA improvement from U.K. facility closure | facility could boost EBITDA by $7 to $8 million annually. | Broken | EBITDA improvement from U.K. closure fails to reach $7 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.13 → $-1.13 · observed estimates
$0.46B → $0.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.13 | $462,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.