Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.68+2.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -77.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-16
is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Positive EBITDA means better performance. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows positive Adjusted EBITDA. It is over $8 million.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows negative Adjusted EBITDA. This is a bad sign.
Why it matters: Expected EBITDA benefits from the closure will show if cost savings work.
Supportive ifEBITDA improves by at least $7 million due to U.K. facility closure benefits.
Worry ifEBITDA does not improve or gets worse. This means closure benefits are not seen.
Why it matters: If industrial sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Ampco-Pittsburgh. This is important for overall performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again, now above 5%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down, now below 5%.
Why it matters: Continued growth in customer orders signals strong demand across Ampco's segments. This supports their growth strategy.
Supportive ifIn Q2, customer orders reached over $140 million. This is up from $124 million in Q1.
Worry ifIn Q2, customer orders dropped below $124 million. This shows demand is getting weaker.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$364 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $663 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,123 loss on $10,000 · 41.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management aims to enhance operating performance this year. Success here could signal a turnaround.
Supportive ifPerformance metrics show better results than in 2025.
Worry ifPerformance metrics fall or do not get better compared to 2025.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future sales. This confirms that demand is recovering.
Supportive ifBacklog grows more than $39.9 million sequentially in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog growth is less than $20 million sequentially in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Closing the U.K. facility could add $7 to $8 million in EBITDA. This would show management is improving costs.
Supportive ifManagement has a clear plan to close the facility by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo updates on the closure or delays in the timeline are reported.
Why it matters: Closing the U.K. facility could add $7-8 million to EBITDA. This would show progress in cost management.
Supportive ifA formal announcement confirming the closure of the U.K. facility.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in the closure of the U.K. facility.
Why it matters: Strong performance in this segment is key for overall revenue growth. It shows demand in power generation and defense.
Supportive ifAir and Liquid Processing net sales increase by at least 15% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifAir and Liquid Processing net sales grow less than 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong order growth signals improving demand across Ampco's segments. It supports management's growth focus.
Supportive ifCustomer orders rise more than 32% year over year in H2 2026.
Worry ifCustomer order activity growth falls below 20% year over year in H2 2026.
Why it matters: A larger margin means better efficiency and profit. This helps management meet goals.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin is more than 9.5%.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 7.4%.
Why it matters: Growth in this area shows recovery in the steel market. This affects overall performance.
Supportive ifSales in Forged and Cast Engineered Products increase more than 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales in Forged and Cast Engineered Products decline further in Q3 2026.