Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp (AP)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.91-8.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -79.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
AP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-16
is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: More backlog would support the recent rise in orders. A drop would weaken the demand recovery story.
Watch forIn the November 11, 2026 results, backlog tops the June 30 level of $385.4 million.
Also watch forIn the November 11, 2026 results, backlog falls below $385.4 million.
Why it matters: Q2 cash from operations was below capital spending. Better cash flow would ease pressure on liquidity and debt.
Supportive ifQ3 operating cash flow is at least as large as Q3 capital spending.
Worry ifQ3 operating cash flow is less than Q3 capital spending. Free cash flow is negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$289 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $741 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,336 loss on $10,000 · 43.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.