Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ARKO Petroleum Corp (APC)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.77+7.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.01 → 0.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $245M-$265M Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | ARKO Petroleum aims to reach $245M-$265M Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $245M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap, energy-linked growth and execution story, not a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis state is unclear because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it, and confidence in the overall evidence is low.
The valuation is flagged as expensive, with elevated fragility because the sector backdrop is turbulent. The model labels expectations as justified, with a modest expectations gap, but the evidence does not spell out the market’s specific assumptions.
Near term, results may remain uneven: APC missed its most recent quarter, and its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut from earlier expectations before being reaffirmed at about $156 million. Discretionary Cash Flow guidance of about $110 million is on track based on first-half results, while the completed acquisition is expected to add fuel volumes and annual Adjusted EBITDA; execution still needs to prove those benefits.
The next call matters because another guidance cut would weaken confidence in delivery. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on realizing the acquisition’s expected contribution and on energy-sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results and guidance.
The 1-to-3-year view is mixed: cash-flow progress and the acquisition support the business case, but prior guidance reductions, a recent miss, and sector sensitivity leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Discretionary cash flow is expected near $110M this year. |
| Intact |
| Discretionary cash flow falls below $110M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain positive earnings per share growth | A supporting condition in ARKO Petroleum Corp's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.39 next quarter; EPS >= $1.33 FY26. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.39 next quarter or below $1.33 FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.39 next quarter; EPS >= $1.33 FY26. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 20260.28 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.33 → $0.92 · observed estimates
$5.82B → $6.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.33 | $5,815,701,458 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.33 | $5,815,701,458 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.33 | $5,815,701,458 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.48 | $5,921,616,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | $5,921,616,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.48 | $5,705,816,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.20 | $5,678,216,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.20 | $5,678,216,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.20 | $5,678,216,780 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.33 | $5,506,800,972 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.07 | $5,595,782,678 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.00 | $5,514,625,465 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.01 | $5,511,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.01 | $6,351,462,749 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.92 | $6,273,129,415 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.