ARKO Petroleum Corp (APC)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$14.77+7.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, ARKO Petroleum Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: APC aims to open 20 fleet fueling sites in 2026. Q2 said two opened in July and 17 were in process.
Supportive ifAPC reports 20 new fleet fueling sites opened during 2026.
Worry ifAPC reports fewer than 20 new fleet fueling sites opened by year-end.
Why it matters: APC reported $25 million in Q1 and $27.1 million in Q2 discretionary cash flow. More cash helps support its yearly target.
Worry ifQ3 discretionary cash flow is below $27.5 million, leaving less than $30.4 million for Q4 to reach $110 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 discretionary cash flow is at least $27.5 million, and APC keeps its $110 million full-year target.
Why it matters: APC reaffirmed $156 million in 2026 EBITDA guidance, but cut earlier guidance. Q3 results will test that target.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was below $39 million. This puts the full-year $156 million target further out of reach.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $39 million, and APC keeps its $156 million full-year target.
Why it matters: The purchase adds fuel volume and may add $30 million in yearly EBITDA. The seller's $30 million in shares depends on results.
Supportive ifA company filing confirms the purchase closed. In its first four full quarters, the acquired business met the deal's EBITDA targets.
Worry ifThe purchase fails to close, or acquired business EBITDA misses the targets for the first four full quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,624 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.