ARKO Petroleum Corp (APC)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.99+2.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 51.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, ARKO Petroleum Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how ARKO is doing financially and growing.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong results. They are better than what the market expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak results. They did not meet market expectations.
Why it matters: A rise in revenue growth could mean good changes in the energy sector.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 2% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing these locations would demonstrate growth in a key segment and support revenue.
Supportive ifAll 20 new fleet fueling locations will open by December 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 20 new fleet fueling locations will open by December 2026.
Why it matters: Energy sector growth is slow. A change could signal a shift in ARKO's performance.
Watch forEnergy sector revenue growth picks up above 3% year over year.
Also watch forEnergy sector revenue growth falls below 1% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $345 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,652 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This conversion helps APC grow. It boosts its operational scale and income.
Supportive ifThe total number of converted ARKO Retail Sites is 500 or more.
Worry ifThe number of converted ARKO Retail Sites is below 500.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend payment shows the company has steady cash flow. It also shows they care about their shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.50 per share is paid as scheduled.
Worry ifIf the dividend payment is delayed or canceled, it may signal cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Higher sales show that more people want the product. This means the company works better.
Supportive ifSame-store merchandise sales growth reported at 1% or higher in Q2.
Worry ifSame-store merchandise sales fell in Q2.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could boost fuel volumes by 14% and add $30 million in EBITDA. This would support the company's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe company says the acquisition is done. It will start operations next quarter.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays. It may not meet targets in the first year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would indicate progress toward the full-year EBITDA goal of $156 million. It shows the company's ability to manage costs and grow.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is at or above $39 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $36 million. This shows challenges in meeting the yearly target.
Why it matters: Converting more sites is important. It helps improve income and growth.
Supportive ifThe company plans to convert at least 30 more ARKO Retail Sites by year-end.
Worry ifFewer than 20 more sites converted by year-end. This shows slower progress.
Why it matters: Keeping this cash flow level is key. It helps fund growth and keeps finances healthy.
Supportive ifDiscretionary Cash Flow reported at or above $27 million for Q3.
Worry ifDiscretionary Cash Flow is below $25 million for Q3. This raises concerns about cash generation.