Air Products (APD)
NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$305.04-1.24%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $305.04. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $305 APD trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median, and our $278 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $310–$360. Note: our $278 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($310–$360). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $328 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$310.00 – $360.00 (median $344.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-07-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $344.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $138.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $153.38 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $308.53 | 23.5 | 13.13 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $307.35 | 23.5 | 13.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $117.26 | 2.1 | 55.92 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $209.93 | 16.1 | 13.08 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $107.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $321.54 | 24.6 | 13.08 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $306.87 | 23.5 | 13.05 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $396.05 | 23.5 | 16.85 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $376.70 | 23.5 | 16.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $143.10 | 2.1 | 68.24 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $257.29 | 16.1 | 16.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $394.09 | 24.6 | 16.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $467.79 | 23.5 | 19.90 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $429.01 | 23.5 | 18.25 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $162.98 | 2.1 | 77.72 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $293.02 | 16.1 | 18.25 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $448.82 | 24.6 | 18.25 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.