Air Products (APD)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$301.27-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $301 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $250 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $320–$373. Note: our $250 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($320–$373). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $324 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $344.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $138.08 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $148.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $240.65 | 17.9 | 13.44 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/E |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$320.00 – $373.00 (median $344.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-08-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $212.90 |
| 15.6 |
| 13.61 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $84.37 | 1.5 | 56.56 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $196.94 | 14.7 | 13.40 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $103.79 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $312.52 | 23.3 | 13.40 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $246.91 | 17.9 | 13.79 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $308.24 | 17.9 | 17.22 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $240.33 | 15.6 | 15.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $95.91 | 1.5 | 64.30 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $225.72 | 14.7 | 15.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $358.19 | 23.3 | 15.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $363.55 | 17.9 | 20.30 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $272.09 | 15.6 | 17.39 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $108.58 | 1.5 | 72.79 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $255.55 | 14.7 | 17.39 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $405.52 | 23.3 | 17.39 | Analyst | high |