Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$15.62 → $15.66 · observed estimates
Air Products (APD)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$318.87+1.89%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.62 → 15.66 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $4 billion in fiscal 2026 | Capital spending stays near $4 billion. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $4.5 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $995.7M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$4 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026995,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$15.62 → $15.66 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
APD is a durable industrial gas business with robust earnings quality and stable management. The multi-year view remains intact but is on watch, as recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and confidence is medium.
Valuation is stretched and expensive versus peers, reflecting a durable premium and an expectations gap. That leaves limited room for execution to disappoint, even though no specific fragility signals are present.
Near term, management has raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance over successive updates, while capital spending guidance has come down; the record on capital discipline is mixed. A recent earnings beat is a positive, but impairments and litigation are concerns, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and upward guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken that tailwind. Over the multi-year view, execution on core industrial gas growth and project portfolio changes also matter, though their financial impact is not yet quantified.
For the next 1 to 3 years, APD has a durable business base and a supportive sector backdrop, but expensive valuation and uneven recent results make execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Air Products raised full-year EPS guidance to about $13.12. |
| Broken |
| Adjusted EPS falls below $13.00 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Air Products raised its fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance from a range of $12.85-$13.15 in 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 to $13.00-$13.25 in 2026-Q1 and further to $13.39-$13.49 in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's consistent emphasis on earnings growth, with guidance trajectory showing incremental upward revisions, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026 |
Revenue growth of about 7% per year | Air Products raised full-year EPS guidance to about $13.12. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Air Products raised its fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance from a range of $12.85-$13.15 in 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 to $13.00-$13.25 in 2026-Q1 and further to $13.39-$13.49 in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's consistent emphasis on earnings growth, with guidance trajectory showing incremental upward revisions, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.33B → $14.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $15.62 | $14,327,820,724 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.62 | $14,327,820,724 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.62 | $14,327,820,724 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.62 | $14,327,820,724 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.62 | $14,327,820,724 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.63 | $14,332,950,640 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.63 | $14,332,950,640 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.63 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.63 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.63 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.63 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.63 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.63 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.66 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.66 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.66 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.66 | $14,285,319,925 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.66 | $14,357,082,322 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.66 | $14,367,448,988 | 5 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.