Air Products (APD)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$309.49-2.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APD — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
Why it matters: Management set Q4 adjusted EPS guidance at $3.55 to $3.65. A result above that range would extend recent earnings growth.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Air Products reports fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS above $3.65.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 adjusted EPS is below $3.55.
Why it matters: The Taiwan deal supports a semiconductor maker's expansion. Start-up would show progress in a named industrial gas growth area.
Supportive ifAir Products reports that one or more of the four Taiwan air units or gas systems has started supplying the customer.
Worry ifAir Products reports a delay, cancellation, or loss of the Taiwan supply deal.
Why it matters: The company raised its full-year range to $13.39 to $13.49. A result below the low end would miss that latest guide.
Worry ifAir Products reports fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS below $13.39.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is at or above $13.39.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $189 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,300 loss on $10,000 · 13.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.