Air Products (APD)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$301.27-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APD — strategy / product update — Material Impairments
Dated 2026-06-30
Material Impairments. On June 26, 2026, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (the “Company”) determined that, as part of a review initiated by its Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, it would exit projects to develop a clean energy complex to produce low carbon hydrogen and ammonia in Louisiana (the “Louisiana Clean Energy Complex”), a facility to produce green hydrogen in Arizona (the “Casa Grande Project”) and other smaller scale projects supporting clean energy distribution. As a r…
Why it matters: The adjusted EPS guidance for Q4 will show if earnings growth continues. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 Q4 adjusted EPS guidance raised above $3.65.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 Q4 adjusted EPS guidance below $3.55.
Why it matters: More cancellations show there are still problems with project success and management plans.
Worry ifNew announcements say there are more project cancellations. This includes LCEC and Casa Grande.
Less concerning ifNo new project cancellations are announced in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Keeping capex at this level is important for future growth and project success.
Watch forAir Products says capital spending is on track for the $4 billion goal.
Also watch forCapex guidance is lowered, showing less investment in growth.
Why it matters: This charge reflects the company's decision to exit certain projects. It will impact financials and investor perception.
Worry ifPre-tax charges from project exits reported at or below $2.9 billion.
Less concerning ifPre-tax charges are over $2.9 billion. This shows more financial strain.
Why it matters: Progress on this project could mean future growth in renewable energy.
Supportive ifNew contracts or milestones in the NEOM project were announced.
Worry ifNo updates or delays reported on the NEOM project.
Why it matters: Higher guidance shows strong earnings and management's focus on growth.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EPS guidance is over $3.65. This shows better performance.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EPS guidance is under $3.55. This suggests weaker earnings.
Why it matters: This charge shows the company is leaving the Louisiana Clean Energy project. It shows they are being careful with money, but it might worry investors.
Worry ifPre-tax charges reported in Q3 do not exceed $2.9 billion.
Less concerning ifCharges are over $2.9 billion. This shows there are bigger financial problems.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance means it may be hard to keep earnings growing.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS guidance below $3.55.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS guidance above $3.65.
Why it matters: More project exits could show bigger problems in Air Products' projects.
Worry ifThey announced new project exits or impairments beyond what was already shared.
Less concerning ifNo new project exits were announced. This suggests their project strategy is stabilizing.
Why it matters: Leaving more projects could show bigger problems with project plans.
Worry ifThey announced more project exits or impairments.
Less concerning ifNo new project exits or impairments announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping this level shows good control of spending. It helps support long-term growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is $3.5 billion or less for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is more than $3.5 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,113 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.