Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.22-9.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.06 → 3.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APEI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash flow from operations, at least $63 million in Q1 2026 | The company keeps strong cash flow, with $63 million from operations in Q1. | Intact | Cash flow from operations falls below $63 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $12.137M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=63 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 202612,137,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
APEI is a growth-focused education business with recent results in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by robust earnings quality and stable management, but elevated risk makes this a less predictable story than the recent growth alone may suggest.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall value factor is neutral and the priced-in assessment is justified. Expectations appear close to the model’s baseline, with an expectations gap of -0.2 and low measured fragility. Valuation rose from 60.7 to 72.0 recently, so the valuation cushion has narrowed.
Near term, management’s focus on revenue growth is showing in higher year-over-year revenue in both reported quarters and 2026 full-year guidance of $690.0 million to $698.0 million. Health+ and Military+ revenue also grew in the supplied comparisons, and the institutional combination was completed after Q2, though its separate financial effect is not provided. The next call’s guidance and recent weakness in jobs data are risks; the stated near-term miss risk is low, but not absent.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on APEI sustaining revenue growth and avoiding a guidance cut. A weaker jobs trend could increase recession concerns and pressure cyclical businesses, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop. The evidence does not quantify how much the institutional combination will contribute.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business case rests on continued growth across Health+ and Military+ and steady execution after the institutional combination. The thesis remains intact, but elevated risk and a recent valuation increase leave guidance and the jobs backdrop as important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS at least $2.31 in 2026 |
| A primary condition in American Public Education, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.31 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.31 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.52 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.31 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.52 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $686 million in 2026 | A primary condition in American Public Education, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=686 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $686 million in FY26 | Revenue: $171.731M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=686 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026171,731,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.77 → $3.06 · observed estimates
$0.73B → $0.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.77 | $734,500,860 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.77 | $734,643,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.77 | $734,500,860 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.74 | $734,471,140 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.74 | $734,471,140 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.97 | $734,631,112 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.06 | $734,952,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.06 | $734,952,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.06 | $734,948,750 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.