American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.36-0.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APEI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Completing the merger of APUS, Rasmussen, and Hondros College could boost enrollment. It might also make things run better.
Supportive ifLook for an announcement that the merger is complete by the start of Q3 2026.
Worry ifA delay in finishing the merger past the start of Q3 2026 is a concern.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows management's confidence in growth. This can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance above $686M-$696M for 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance at or below $686M-$696M for 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows APEI can control costs while growing revenue. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in Q3 falls within the range of $14 million to $17 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $14 million. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: This range shows growth in Military+ enrollments, which is key for revenue. Strong registrations indicate demand for APEI's programs.
Supportive ifMilitary+ net registrations reported in Q3 fall within the range of 101,000 to 103,000.
Worry ifMilitary net registrations are below 101,000. This shows weaker demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,719 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow could raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $12 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $12 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This net income shows the company is making more money and managing costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income reported at $6.5 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $6.5 million.
Why it matters: This growth indicates strong demand for health education and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifHealth+ segment enrollment reported at 19,600 students or higher.
Worry ifHealth+ segment has less than 19,600 students enrolled.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for financial health. A decline could raise concerns about liquidity.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is above $12.1 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is below $12.1 million.
Why it matters: This enrollment figure reflects growth in Health+, which supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifHealth+ enrollment reported at or above 19,100.
Worry ifHealth+ enrollment is below 19,100.
Why it matters: Finishing the $50 million buyback program shows that management wants to give value back.
Supportive ifThe company completes the share repurchase program of up to $50 million.
Worry ifThe company fails to execute the planned share repurchase program as stated.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this goal shows strong growth and confidence from management.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at $170 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $170 million.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising EPS guidance shows strong profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for 2026 reported at or above $2.33.
Worry ifEPS guidance for 2026 reported below $2.33.