American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.22-9.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APEI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
APEI — director transition
Dated 2026-10-27
Director — Shira Goodman: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to fill a seat, which is a routine board composition change rather than the departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: APEI had $45.0 million left in its repurchase plan at June 30. More repurchases would show continued use of this capital plan.
Supportive ifA later filing shows APEI has spent more than $5.0 million on repurchases since June 30.
Worry ifA later filing shows no new repurchases. The full $45.0 million remains available.
Why it matters: APEI completed the combination of APUS, Rasmussen, and Hondros after Q2. Clear cost savings would show that the change is helping results.
Supportive ifAPEI reports lower costs from the combination. It raises its full-year adjusted EBITDA range above $104.0 million.
Worry ifAPEI reports higher costs from the combination. It cuts its full-year adjusted EBITDA range below $96.0 million.
Why it matters: Health+ enrollment grew 6.6% in Q2, and APEI guided to 19,100 for Q3. More students would back continued growth in this segment.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows Health+ enrollment above 19,100.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows Health+ enrollment below 19,100.
Why it matters: APEI reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $20.7 million, but its Q3 range is lower. A result below that range would signal weaker earnings than guided.
Worry ifThe Nov. 9 report shows Q3 adjusted EBITDA below $14.0 million.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 9 report shows Q3 adjusted EBITDA at or above $17.0 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $365 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,334 loss on $10,000 · 33.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.