Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION (APLD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.17-14.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Secure and deploy at least $350M financing for growth | A supporting condition in APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >=350 million USD credit facility secured by 2026-Q3. | Intact | failure to maintain or replace $350M credit facility by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative growth thesis, not a proven durable compounder. Management is expanding AI campuses and HPC Hosting, but recent results are weak and the thesis is in a watch state after earnings misses.
The valuation signal is low-confidence: APLD carries a premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the model. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but that does not remove the risk tied to losses and execution.
Over the multi-year view, revenue growth is supported by long-term leases and rising HPC Hosting, while Data Center Hosting has been stable. Near term, earnings have been erratic, the latest quarter was missed, and guidance risk remains; funding construction also depends on continued access to financing.
The thesis depends on management continuing to expand contracted campuses and convert that growth into stronger financial performance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among large technology companies could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, APLD’s long-term thesis has visible growth drivers but remains unproven, with losses, financing demands, and execution risk central to the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves from -$86M towards breakeven |
| A primary condition in APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is operating loss narrows by at least 50% by 2027-FY. |
| Intact |
| operating loss worsens beyond -$86M in any quarter through 2027-FY |
Operating income: $-62.379M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: operating loss narrows by at least 50% by 2027-FY. Target and observation units differ. Oct 7, 2026-62,379,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $127M by 2026-Q3 | A primary condition in APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >=126.6 million USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $64M in any quarter through 2026-Q3 | Revenue: $341.875M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=126.6 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 7, 2026341,875,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.21 → $-0.93 · observed estimates
$2.03B → $1.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.21 | $2,034,725,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.21 | $2,034,725,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.08 | $2,026,517,378 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.08 | $2,026,517,378 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.08 | $2,026,517,378 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.13 | $1,781,966,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.13 | $1,781,966,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.13 | $1,781,966,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.13 | $1,781,966,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.13 | $1,781,966,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.13 | $1,814,809,150 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.13 | $1,814,809,150 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.13 | $1,814,809,150 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.13 | $1,814,809,150 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.25 | $1,904,828,090 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.25 | $1,904,828,090 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.25 | $1,904,828,090 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.25 | $1,904,828,090 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.25 | $1,904,828,090 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.03 | $2,049,885,202 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.19 | $2,046,281,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.19 | $2,046,281,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.19 | $2,046,281,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.19 | $2,046,281,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.19 | $2,047,591,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.19 | $1,856,657,608 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.19 | $1,882,561,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.47 | $1,882,561,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.47 | $1,882,561,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.47 | $1,882,561,847 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.46 | $1,904,162,352 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.46 | $1,904,162,352 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.55 | $1,925,617,805 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.55 | $1,925,617,805 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.55 | $1,925,617,805 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.53 | $1,899,547,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.54 | $1,898,983,477 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.78 | $1,920,633,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.78 | $1,935,059,687 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.78 | $1,937,023,972 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.78 | $1,937,023,972 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.93 | $1,935,782,374 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.93 | $1,944,349,041 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.