APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION (APLD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.37+1.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 149.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers
APLD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
of Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: New leases would indicate strong demand for AI data centers and boost revenue.
Supportive ifNew long-term leases are announced with strong customers for more MW.
Worry ifNo new leases are signed. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue growth shows success in expanding key products. This boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds the previous quarter's $126.6M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below $126.6M.
Why it matters: New leases indicate strong demand for AI data centers and revenue growth potential. They validate the company's market position.
Supportive ifThey announced new long-term leases. These leases total over 300 MW with strong companies.
Worry ifNo new lease agreements are signed in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better income is a main goal for management. It shows better cost control and profit.
Supportive ifIncome shows a year-over-year rise in the Q3 earnings report.
Worry ifIncome falls or stays the same year-over-year in Q3 earnings.
Why it matters: This assignment may change how Applied Digital makes money and runs its business.
Watch forCoreWeave gets a strong credit rating. The lease assignment is completed.
Also watch forCoreWeave fails to achieve the credit rating, and the assignment does not occur.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income shows problems with cost management. This hurts overall profits.
Worry ifOperating income declines worse than -$85.7M in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income gets better or stays steady above -$85.7M.
Why it matters: Getting financing is key for growth. It shows management's commitment to funding investments.
Supportive ifNew financing plans or partnerships are announced.
Worry ifNo new financing plans are announced by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Ongoing court cases can affect operations and finances. Bad results may slow growth.
Worry ifCourt cases end with a good result for the company.
Less concerning ifCourt cases end with a ruling that hurts operations or finances.
Why it matters: This funding is crucial for developing the fourth building at Polaris Forge 1. Successful completion will support growth plans.
Supportive ifThe offering closes on or around June 16, 2026, with funds allocated for construction.
Worry ifThe offering does not close as planned or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may indicate that the company's expansion efforts are failing.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $126.6M in Q3.
Less concerning ifRevenue exceeds $126.6M in Q3, showing strong growth.
Why it matters: Starting work at the new campus will help Applied Digital make more money.
Supportive ifDelta Forge 2 is set to start operations in Q1 2028.
Worry ifOperations will be delayed past Q1 2028, affecting revenue growth plans.
Why it matters: How the company uses this credit will show its commitment to growth. It can impact future revenue.
Supportive ifLook for news about projects that the $350M credit facility will fund.
Worry ifNo updates on the use of the credit facility within the next few months.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows better cost control. This helps with profits in the future.
Supportive ifOperating income moves toward zero or is less than -$22.3M.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse, staying below -$85.7M.
Why it matters: Finishing this building is important. It helps grow AI capacity and meet customer needs.
Supportive ifThe fourth building at Polaris Forge 1 is done on time and ready to use.
Worry ifConstruction delays move the start date later than planned.
Why it matters: Financing helps build and grow data centers.
Supportive ifThe company shares news of new financing deals worth over $500 million.
Worry ifNo new financing has been announced. This raises worries about funding for projects.
Why it matters: How the company uses this credit will show commitment to growth initiatives. It impacts future expansion.
Watch forManagement shares plans for growth. They will use the $350M credit facility to fund these.
Also watch forThere are no updates on the $350M credit facility. There are also no delays in plans.
Why it matters: Ongoing revenue growth in this area shows demand for AI tools. It shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifHPC Hosting revenue increases above $250 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifHPC Hosting revenue declines or stays below $203 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change interest rates. This affects how Applied Digital gets money.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This leads to higher borrowing costs for Applied Digital.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates the same or lowers them, helping the company access capital.
Why it matters: The $550 million credit facility helps with ongoing development. Using these funds well can boost growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they used funds from the credit facility for new projects.
Worry ifFunds are not used well, causing delays in planned developments.
Why it matters: Management's focus on expanding AI campuses is key for future revenue growth. New leases indicate strong demand.
Supportive ifLook for new leases or contracts for more AI Factory campuses beyond 1.4 GW.
Worry ifNo new leases or big delays in campus expansions are reported.
Why it matters: This report will reveal if revenue growth continues and if operational challenges persist. It is a key indicator of financial health.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$347 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $963 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,323 loss on $10,000 · 53.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.