Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Appian Corp. (APPN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.03+8.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.42 → 1.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APPN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $97M and $105M | Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $100 million. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $97M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
APPN is a growth-oriented software business with improving adjusted profitability, though it remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure in this snapshot. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: revenue execution is on track, but the overall signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation is stretched, at a 1.43 premium versus peers, and the model points to a 24% expectations gap tied to re-rating, or a change in how the market values the business. Fragility is rated low because the evidence points to expensive valuation alone, rather than expensive valuation combined with weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, management’s 2026 revenue growth goal appears on track: latest-quarter revenue grew 19% year over year, and full-year guidance implies 16% to 17% growth. Adjusted EBITDA improved, but progress toward the full-year goal is mixed; recent earnings beats are positive, while industry performance has been weak and past misses remain a risk.
The main business swing factor is whether APPN sustains revenue growth and delivers its adjusted EBITDA goal without cutting guidance. Near-term conditions could also improve if interest rates fall or large technology peers stabilize, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis depends on consistent growth translating into stronger profitability, against a stretched valuation and high overall risk. The evidence is mixed, with limited confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Appian Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 13% to 14% YoY growth. |
| Broken |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 13% in FY26 |
Revenue: $203.256M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 13% to 14% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026203,256,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $50M share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Appian Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $50 million repurchase program executed. | Intact | share repurchase program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.26 → $1.42 · observed estimates
$0.91B → $0.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.26 | $914,208,006 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.26 | $914,204,550 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.42 | $941,236,700 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.42 | $941,236,700 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.42 | $941,236,700 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.42 | $941,236,700 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.42 | $941,236,700 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.42 | $941,236,700 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.26 | $914,197,173 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.42 | $941,236,696 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.42 | $941,777,733 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.