Appian Corp. (APPN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.37-6.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APPN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-01-21
Director — David Link: David Link was appointed to the Board of Directors and will also serve on the Audit Committee.
Why it matters: Completion shows good capital use and management trust. Delays may cause worries.
Supportive ifThe company will finish its share buyback program by February 2028.
Worry ifProgram not finished by February 2028, which may show problems in capital use.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of Appian's ability to meet its revenue targets for the year.
Worry ifCloud subscriptions revenue grew less than 17% year-over-year for Q3.
Less concerning ifCloud subscriptions revenue growth meets or exceeds 19% year-over-year for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth is critical for meeting the company's annual revenue targets.
Worry ifTotal revenue grew less than 14% year-over-year for Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth meets or exceeds 17% year-over-year for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the sector. This could affect Appian's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$265 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $572 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,898 loss on $10,000 · 59.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This revenue range supports management's goal of 14% to 17% growth for the year.
Supportive ifTotal revenue grows year over year between $214 million and $218 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth falls below 14% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue, EBITDA, and overall performance. It is a key moment for investors.
Watch forThe earnings report shows strong results that beat expectations.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows weak results that fall short of expectations.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and keeps operations stable.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $12 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $12 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This metric helps us understand how well Appian makes money and operates.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $30 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than $33 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback can show management's belief in the company's worth.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of more share buybacks beyond the $50 million program.
Worry ifThere are no updates or announcements about the share buyback program.