Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Digital Turbine, Inc. (APPS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.67+1.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.95 → 0.92 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APPS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $135M-$145M in FY 2027 | Profit should improve with adjusted EBITDA near $140 million. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $135M in FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA 2 for the fiscal first quarter of 2027 was $42.5 million, representing an increase of 69% year-over-year as compared to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA 2 of $25.1 million in the fiscal first quarter of 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth business with improving recent results, but it is not yet profitable on the evidence provided. The long-term thesis is intact, while elevated risk and a neutral management assessment leave execution important.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says APPS is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 44% premium to peers. The overall priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but confidence in the valuation model is medium and the expectations gap is negative.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance have both been raised, and first-quarter revenue grew 27% year over year. The company’s AI-related growth progress is mixed, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk; losses and the recent debt issuance also temper the picture.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on delivering the fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals without cutting guidance. AI partnerships and the App Growth Platform’s growth are also important, while steadier results across major technology companies or lower interest rates could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, APPS has a credible growth trajectory and an intact thesis, but it remains a higher-risk, loss-making business whose progress depends on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves to positive $10.5M in 2026-Q4 | Operating income rose to $10.5 million in 2026-Q4, showing cost control progress. | Improving | Operating income falls below $0 in 2026-Q4 | Operating income: $23.061M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.5M. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202623,061,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $630M-$650M in FY 2027 | A primary condition in Digital Turbine, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$640M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $630M in FY 2027 | Revenue: $165.983M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$640M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 2026165,983,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.98 → $0.92 · observed estimates
$0.71B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.98 | $712,893,819 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.98 | $712,893,820 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.95 | $732,477,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.95 | $737,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.95 | $744,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.94 | $743,526,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.92 | $744,114,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.92 | $744,114,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.92 | $744,114,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.92 | $744,114,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.92 | $744,114,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.92 | $744,114,600 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.