Digital Turbine, Inc. (APPS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.71-1.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APPS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APPS — officer change
Dated 2026-08-25
The filing describes the approval of an amendment to the equity incentive plan, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in management personnel.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is making more money and working better.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP adjusted EBITDA is at least $145 million.
Worry ifNon-GAAP adjusted EBITDA is less than $135 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a weakening position in a growing sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below the sector median for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the sector median for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance of $650M-$670M shows strong growth momentum for the company.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue reaches at least $650 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 revenue falls below $630 million.
Why it matters: New M&A announcements could show growth plans and improve market position.
Supportive ifA press release about a new acquisition or partnership.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$370 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $735 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,132 loss on $10,000 · 61.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well revenue is growing and how the company performs. This is important for investors.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth of over 15% compared to last year.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth of less than 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this growth shows strong demand. It shows management is doing well.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $211.8 million or more. This is a 27% increase from last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was less than $211.8 million. This means demand is weak or there are issues.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better cost control. It shows the company is getting closer to profits.
Supportive ifGAAP net loss reported less than $3.2 million for Q2.
Worry ifGAAP net loss was more than $3.2 million. This suggests ongoing money problems.
Why it matters: Continued growth in this segment shows effective use of AI partnerships. It signals strong demand for their services.
Supportive ifApp Growth Platform revenue grows year-over-year by 56% in fiscal Q1 2027.
Worry ifApp Growth Platform revenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year.