Antero Resources (AR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.41-0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows financial discipline and strengthens the balance sheet. This affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet debt is below $1.5 billion. This shows good integration of HG assets.
Worry ifNet debt is still above $1.5 billion. This may mean integration issues or cash flow problems.
Why it matters: This production level shows how the HG acquisition helps growth. It proves Antero can boost output and control costs.
Supportive ifQ2 production averages 4.1 Bcfe/d as expected. This shows full use of HG assets.
Worry ifQ2 production is below 4.0 Bcfe/d. This may mean integration problems or lower demand.
Why it matters: Lower debt makes finances stronger. It also helps Antero grow in the future.
Supportive ifDebt leverage reported below 1.0x in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDebt leverage remains above 1.0x in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Cutting debt shows that the HG acquisition is working well. It also means better finances.
Supportive ifDebt levels fall a lot after a $1.5 billion rise from the acquisition.
Worry ifDebt levels stay the same or go up. This shows there are integration challenges.
Why it matters: Higher price premiums show strong market demand for Antero's products.
Supportive ifEthane price premium is above $2.00 per barrel.
Worry ifEthane price premium is below $1.00 per barrel.
Why it matters: Changes in NGL prices can impact revenue and show Antero's market position.
Watch forNGL prices rise due to geopolitical events. This supports Antero's pricing plan.
Also watch forNGL prices fall despite geopolitical events. This shows weakness in the market.
Why it matters: Good deals can raise production and make things run smoother.
Supportive ifNew deals were announced that add key production capacity.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced. This may mean slow growth ahead.
Why it matters: Successful acquisitions will help Antero grow. They will also boost production.
Supportive ifCompleted acquisitions add more than 125 MMcfe/d of production.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions or they do not add expected production.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this guidance shows strong performance. It helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifQ3 production guidance averages 4.25 Bcfe/d or higher.
Worry ifQ3 production guidance falls below 4.25 Bcfe/d.
Why it matters: Keeping expenses low supports higher margins and free cash flow, which are key management goals.
Supportive ifCash production expenses reported at or below $2.30 per Mcfe.
Worry ifCash production expenses exceed $2.30 per Mcfe.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows strong cash flow. It helps with future investments and buybacks.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported above $220 million.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $220 million.
Why it matters: Finishing this sale will make operations simpler. It will focus resources on key assets.
Supportive ifThe company will say the Ohio Utica Shale sale is done.
Worry ifThere may be a delay or cancellation of the Ohio Utica Shale sale.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,642 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.