Antero Resources (AR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.38-2.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and is not incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: Antero guided to about 4.3 Bcfe/d in Q4, despite planned curtailments. Meeting that level would support its production growth plan.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 average production is at least 4.3 Bcfe/d.
Worry ifQ4 2026 average production is below 4.3 Bcfe/d, or curtailments exceed the guided 15 to 20 Bcfe.
Why it matters: The expiring deal would add about 35 MMcf/d of net gas output and an estimated $30 million in annual free cash flow.
Supportive ifOn or after August 1, 2027, Antero reports that about 35 MMcf/d of VPP gas volumes have returned.
Worry ifThe VPP does not expire on August 1, 2027, or reported returned volumes are well below 35 MMcf/d.
Why it matters: Q3 costs fell to $2.05 per Mcfe, below guidance. Keeping costs low would support the plan to cut costs by $0.70 per Mcfe by 2028.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports cash production expense at or below $2.20 per Mcfe.
Worry ifA later quarter reports cash production expense above $2.20 per Mcfe, or costs rise for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: The 400 MMcf/d deals added $20 million in annual free cash flow. Reaching the 2027 target could add more cash flow.
Supportive ifAntero reports completed deals that optimize more than 1 Bcf/d and confirm an annual free cash flow gain near $50 million.
Worry ifAntero reports less than 1 Bcf/d optimized. Or it does not confirm the expected $50 million annual gain in free cash flow.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $393 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,642 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Antero guided to a $0.15–$0.25 per Mcf discount to NYMEX as regional prices weaken. A wider gap could cut cash earned per unit.
Worry ifQ4 2026 realized natural gas price before hedges is more than $0.25 per Mcf below NYMEX.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 realized natural gas price before hedges is no more than $0.25 per Mcf below NYMEX.