Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (ARCT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.87+13.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARCT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway beyond Q2 2028 | This partnership and cash runway give hope for recovery. | Intact | Cash runway falls below Q2 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Financial Results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 Cash Position and Balance Sheet Cash and cash equivalents were $191.5 million as of June 30, 2026, and $230.9 million on December 31, 2025, for a decrease of $39.4 million.” “We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and cash runway of over two and a half years through year end 2028, allowing our company to reach important clinical and regulatory milestones for its rare disease pipeline.”” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, clinical-stage biotech with a speculative growth profile, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: ARCT-032 is on schedule, while financial performance remains weak and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation model shows ARCT at a slight premium to peers, with expectations broadly aligned and no flagged fragility. That points to a roughly justified valuation in the snapshot, but it does not remove the uncertainty tied to ongoing losses and clinical execution.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent financial performance is weak, and the next report carries an elevated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, ARCT-032 enrollment is on schedule and a Thermo Fisher collaboration supports a planned Phase 3 decision in Q4 2026; cash declined from Q1 to Q2 as clinical spending continued, despite management’s stated runway priority beyond Q2 2028.
The thesis depends on ARCT-032 reaching a Phase 3 decision and ARCT-810 data and regulatory plans supporting progress toward a pivotal trial. A guidance cut or further economic weakening would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ARCT remains a high-risk clinical execution story with a supportive sector backdrop, but weak financial performance and cash use are important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating losses toward breakeven | They are working to reduce operating losses which improved slightly from -$33.4M to -$28.9M. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$28.9M | Operating income: $-25.545M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to at least -$28.9M or better. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-25,545,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize and grow revenue from recent lows | A primary condition in Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue stabilizes above $2M and grows toward $7.5M quarterly. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2M or declines further | Revenue: $2.959M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue stabilizes above $2M and grows toward $7.5M quarterly. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20262,959,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful execution of Thermo Fisher strategic collaboration | Arcturus has a strategic partnership with Thermo Fisher to boost its cystic fibrosis drug. | Intact | Partnership fails to deliver expected benefits or dissolves | Qualitative: Partnership active & advancing Thermo Fisher partnership active; Phase III ARCT-032 trial advancing; CDMO agreements signed. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.98 → $-3.72 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.98 | $25,157,427 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.98 | $25,157,427 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.02 | $33,035,090 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.01 | $34,740,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.01 | $34,740,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.01 | $34,740,590 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.83 | $36,633,510 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.83 | $36,633,510 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.78 | $29,584,000 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.98 | $25,124,094 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.73 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.65 | $20,580,096 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.66 | $20,583,551 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.66 | $20,585,678 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.72 | $19,649,315 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.