Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (ARCT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.82+1.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARCT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -23.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARCT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Press Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. In addition, this information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), except as shall be expressly…
Why it matters: Ongoing losses can affect future funding and growth plans.
Worry ifOperating income losses decrease to below -$25M in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating income losses remain above -$30M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on KOSTAIVE may bring new chances for growth and partnerships. Management is focused on this.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about new partnerships. They also discuss plans for KOSTAIVE and disease programs.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news about the KOSTAIVE portfolio in the next few months.
Why it matters: This partnership could help make products and support future revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they have better financial numbers. They also see revenue growth from the partnership.
Worry ifNo financial gains are reported, showing problems with the partnership.
Why it matters: A clear plan for the main trial could help develop OTC deficiency.
Supportive ifManagement shares a timeline for starting the main trial after the EOP2 meeting.
Worry ifNo clear path forward is established, delaying the pivotal trial for ARCT-810.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$274 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $660 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,612 loss on $10,000 · 76.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good data could help move to Phase 3. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRelease of positive clinical data from the ARCT-032 Phase 2 study in Q3 2026.
Worry ifData from the ARCT-032 Phase 2 study shows no clear benefits.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial direction. This could affect cash management and losses.
Watch forCFO Dennis Mulroy announced new strategies. These will help financial performance.
Also watch forNo big changes in strategy or losses after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Enrollment progress will show if the company is on track for clinical milestones. This is key for the cystic fibrosis program.
Supportive ifEnrollment of Class I CF participants reaches or exceeds 20 by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment remains below 20 participants by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue dropped significantly last quarter. A further decline would show ongoing issues.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $2.06M, continuing the downward trend.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is over $2.06M. This shows better money-making.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it may benefit Arcturus. This could signal a better market environment.
Supportive ifHealth care revenue growth accelerates back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifHealth care revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below current levels.
Why it matters: The EOP2 meeting will clarify the path for the pivotal trial in the OTC deficiency program. This is critical for future development.
Supportive ifThe FDA gave positive feedback on the pediatric clinical plan in the EOP2 meeting. This happened in H2 2026.
Worry ifNegative feedback from the FDA or delays in the EOP2 meeting outcomes.
Why it matters: The next earnings call will provide updates on financial health and future plans. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Watch forLook for the next earnings date announcement. It should have positive guidance or better metrics.
Also watch forNo announcement of the next earnings date is a bad sign. It means continued losses.
Why it matters: Progress in this partnership could help Arcturus make more products and earn more money.
Supportive ifNew contracts or projects from the Thermo Fisher partnership will be announced.
Worry ifNo news or progress about the Thermo Fisher partnership has been reported.
Why it matters: A clear plan from regulators could show progress for important trials.
Supportive ifA regulatory plan for ARCT-810 will be announced after Phase 2 data in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement or unclear regulatory plan for ARCT-810 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Having enough cash is important for funding clinical trials. Updates may affect investor trust.
Watch forManagement says cash will last beyond Q2 2028 in future updates.
Also watch forUpdates show cash running low or running out before Q2 2028.
Why it matters: A revenue increase would show progress in addressing the company's declining sales. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $2.1M, showing a rebound from the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ2 revenue stays below $2.1M, continuing the downward trend.
Why it matters: Smaller losses would show progress in managing costs and running the business.
Supportive ifOperating income loss narrows to less than -$28.9M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income loss remains at or worsens beyond -$28.9M in Q2.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans may affect costs and how much money the company makes.
Watch forGood changes in financial numbers or cost management after the CFO change.
Also watch forOngoing negative trends in income or cash flow after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Advancing ARCT-032 would help treat cystic fibrosis. This may boost investor confidence and lead to partnerships.
Supportive ifManagement says ARCT-032 Phase 2 results are good. They will move on to Phase 3.
Worry ifManagement states that ARCT-032 Phase 2 results are not sufficient to advance to Phase 3.