Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (ARCT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.36-13.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARCT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -29.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
ARCT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Press Release, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. In addition, this information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), except as shall be expressly…
Why it matters: Phase 2 dosing is complete. The data and FDA plan can show whether ARCT-810 is moving toward a pivotal study.
Watch forThe company shares Phase 2 data and a regulatory plan in Q3 2026. It shows a clear path to a pivotal study.
Also watch forThe company reports weak data, no clear path to a pivotal study, or delays the Q3 update.
Why it matters: Changes in lung function are a direct test of early benefit in the CF study. The study tracks ppFEV1 and LCI.
Watch forPhase 2 results show better ppFEV1 or LCI, with no major safety concern.
Also watch forResults show no improvement or worsening in ppFEV1 and LCI, or a major safety concern.
Why it matters: A Phase 3 decision would mark progress for the CF program. Phase 2 results guide that decision.
Watch forArcturus says it will advance ARCT-032 to Phase 3 in Q4 2026, based on positive Phase 2 findings.
Also watch forArcturus does not advance ARCT-032 in Q4 2026, or reports a delay or findings that block Phase 3.
Why it matters: Cash fell from $213.4 million in Q1 to $191.5 million in Q2. The company says its runway extends beyond Q2 2028.
Worry ifA company update or filing puts cash runway at Q2 2028 or earlier.
Less concerning ifA company update or filing keeps cash runway beyond Q2 2028.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$360 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $729 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,395 loss on $10,000 · 44.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.