Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.99-9.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.26 → 0.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARDX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and funding without excessive dilution | A supporting condition in Ardelyx, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further large debt raises beyond current $50M loan. | Intact | New large debt or equity raises that dilute shareholders or increase leverage materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth story, not a proven compounder, because earnings remain loss-making. The long-term thesis is on watch: product revenue goals are progressing, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.
ARDX screens as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility warning; this suggests the valuation does not clearly signal that expectations are unusually stretched.
Near term, IBSRELA and XPHOZAH revenue growth supports management’s 2026 goals, and ACCEL trial enrollment remains on track for completion by year-end, with data expected in the second half of 2027. The main near-term concern is execution: ARDX has a run of earnings misses, and the next print carries elevated miss risk.
A guidance increase next quarter after the August reduction would support a recovery in execution, while further weakness would deepen concerns. Over the multi-year view, delivery on product revenue goals and progress toward ACCEL data are key; broader Healthcare sector momentum is a supporting factor, but the evidence for its effect on ARDX is limited.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on sustained product growth and credible execution, with losses and recent misses keeping risk high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Move toward profitability with positive EPS by 2027 |
| A supporting condition in Ardelyx, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.50. |
| Improving |
| EPS remains negative or below $0.50 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.50. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue reaches $270-275M in 2025 | A primary condition in Ardelyx, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $270 million. | Intact | total revenue falls below $270 million in FY25 | Revenue: $127.655M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $270 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026127,655,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue for XPHOZAH ® (tenapanor) during the third quarter of 2026 was $29.2 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 7%.” “• Full-year 2026 revenue guidance for XPHOZAH reiterated to be between $110 and $120 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
XPHOZAH revenue reaches $110-120M in 2026 | A primary condition in Ardelyx, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $110 million. | Intact | XPHOZAH revenue falls below $110 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue for XPHOZAH ® (tenapanor) during the third quarter of 2026 was $29.2 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 7%.” “• Full-year 2026 revenue guidance for XPHOZAH reiterated to be between $110 and $120 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.52 → $0.24 · observed estimates
$0.74B → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.48 | $739,553,570 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.52 | $739,579,020 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.52 | $716,615,390 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.52 | $716,615,390 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.52 | $716,615,390 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.32 | $643,697,980 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.32 | $643,697,980 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.32 | $638,363,250 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.47 | $738,735,416 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.26 | $623,895,217 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.26 | $623,895,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.25 | $624,077,062 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.25 | $624,048,280 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.24 | $622,430,099 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.24 | $622,927,371 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.