Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.78+1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 112.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
ARDX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), no…
Why it matters: Completing enrollment on time is crucial for the Phase 3 trial of IBSRELA. It impacts future revenue potential and market position.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the ACCEL trial is completed by December 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment in the ACCEL trial is not completed by December 2026.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it could help Ardelyx's performance. A strong sector supports individual companies.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down below current levels.
Why it matters: Controlling expenses is important for making money. It shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating expenses will be under $500 million for all of 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses exceed $500 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in cash could hurt Ardelyx's ability to pay for operations and trials.
Worry ifCash position was below $200 million.
Less concerning ifCash position remains above $200 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this revenue target shows XPHOZAH is doing well in the market. It shows good management of growth.
Supportive ifXPHOZAH revenue reaches or exceeds $110 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifXPHOZAH revenue falls below $110 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger net loss may show money problems and hurt investor trust. It shows ongoing issues.
Worry ifNet loss for Q2 exceeds $40 million.
Less concerning ifNet loss for Q2 is $40 million or less.
Why it matters: If IBSRELA revenue growth slows, it may show problems with demand or market access.
Worry ifIBSRELA revenue growth for Q3 is below 30% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifIBSRELA revenue growth for Q3 is above 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Updates on this loan could affect cash flow and funding for operations. It is critical for financial stability.
Worry ifThe company shares good news about the Term F Loan or repayment terms.
Less concerning ifCompany reports issues or delays related to the Term F Loan.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows strong demand for IBSRELA. It shows management can carry out their plan.
Supportive ifIBSRELA revenue reaches or exceeds $350 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifIBSRELA revenue falls below $350 million for the full year 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,357 loss on $10,000 · 53.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.