Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.99-9.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 28.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 114.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARDX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Ardelyx, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be considered “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), no…
Why it matters: In Q1, Ardelyx said it aimed to reach $1B in IBSRELA sales by 2029. In Q2, it said the timing was under review.
Watch forManagement confirms a clear path to the $1B goal by 2029, despite the new payor limits.
Also watch forManagement pushes the $1B goal past 2029 or says the goal is no longer in place.
Why it matters: XPHOZAH sales rose to $31.9M in Q2, and Ardelyx kept its full-year guide. Meeting it would show continued growth.
Supportive ifQ3 and Q4 sales bring 2026 XPHOZAH revenue to at least $110M, with the guide unchanged.
Worry ifManagement cuts the $110–$120M guide, or full-year sales fall below $110M.
Why it matters: Management cut its IBSRELA sales guide after payors added more limits. Q3 sales will show how much those limits hurt.
Watch forQ3 IBSRELA revenue is at least $86.2M, and management keeps the $350–$370M 2026 guide.
Also watch forQ3 IBSRELA revenue is below $86.2M, or management cuts the $350–$370M 2026 guide again.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,258 loss on $10,000 · 62.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.