American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.60-6.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — annual revenue growth rate: rev +5.8% vs 13% target.
American Realty grows revenue about 13% a year. Earnings per share target is $0.97 in 2026. The company owns many apartments and commercial buildings in growing US regions. Profit margins and cash flow should stay stable.
Profit margins could shrink if real estate prices fall. Cash flow is negative now. The company faces sector headwinds and elevated risk.
The price is about 7% below our fair value near $22. Analysts expect 13% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations.
Breaks if: free cash flow yield remains negative next year
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.85 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious long-term thesis on a smaller-cap real estate company. The current state reflects mixed execution and weak recent financial performance, which raises concerns about its stability.
The market appears to be pricing in elevated fragility due to expensive valuation and weak execution quality. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that the current valuation may not be justified given the company's recent struggles.
Management is focused on increasing occupancy and revenue from commercial properties, which has shown some positive results. However, rising operating expenses and declining net income indicate challenges in improving overall profitability.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to improve earnings and control costs. Additionally, external influences like potential Fed rate cuts and performance of sector bellwethers could significantly impact ARL's outlook.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ARL's performance will depend on its management execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.