American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.52+0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 96.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 87.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
Why it matters: In Q2, interest expense was $2.8 million and interest income was $2.8 million. A wider gap could add to losses.
Worry ifQ3 interest expense is greater than interest income, with a wider gap than Q2's $7,000.
Less concerning ifQ3 interest income is as high as or higher than interest expense.
Why it matters: Commercial occupancy was 58% in Q2. Higher occupancy can lift rent revenue, but the current level leaves room to improve.
Supportive ifQ3 results show commercial occupancy above 58%. They also show more commercial revenue than in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 commercial occupancy stays at or below 58%, or commercial revenue falls from Q2.
Why it matters: The release can show whether commercial occupancy rises and lease-up costs ease. These are key tests of revenue growth and operating losses.
Watch forThe November 5 release shows commercial occupancy above 58%. It also shows a smaller net operating loss than Q2's $2.5 million.
Also watch forThe release shows commercial occupancy of 58% or less and a net operating loss of $2.5 million or more.
Why it matters: Lease-up property costs helped push the Q2 operating loss to $2.5 million. More cost growth could keep earnings under pressure.
Worry ifQ3 results show lease-up costs rose above $1.6 million, or a net operating loss greater than Q2's $2.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 lease-up cost growth is below $1.6 million and the net operating loss is smaller than $2.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$244 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $542 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,874 loss on $10,000 · 38.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: ARL posted a $1.0 million common-share loss in Q2, after a $2.8 million profit a year earlier. A return to profit would mark a clear change.
Supportive ifQ3 results show net income for common shares and positive earnings per share.
Worry ifQ3 results show another net loss for common shares or negative earnings per share.