American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.60-6.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 49.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: A return to net income shows better profits, matching management's goals.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 turns positive, reversing the trend of losses seen in Q1 and Q2.
Worry ifNet income is still negative, continuing losses from previous quarters.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in real estate picks up, it could signal a recovery for ARL. This would be a positive sign for investors.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates mean more properties are filled. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifIf Q2 occupancy rates are over 85%, it shows leasing is going well.
Worry ifIf Q2 occupancy rates are below 80%, it shows leasing is still hard.
Why it matters: Positive earnings per share show a turnaround in profits and investor trust.
Supportive ifIf Q2 earnings per share are positive, it shows a return to profits.
Worry ifIf Q2 earnings per share are negative, it shows ongoing financial issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,793 loss on $10,000 · 37.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower operating costs can raise net income. This shows better management of expenses.
Supportive ifOperating expenses drop by at least 10% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase or stay the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector. This would be positive for American Realty Investors.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the real estate sector rises above 7% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Stronger revenue growth shows the business is recovering and demand is rising.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year, showing strong business performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year, suggesting weak demand.
Why it matters: A decrease in net operating loss shows better cost management. The current loss is $2.5 million.
Supportive ifNet operating loss decreases below $2.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet operating loss increases beyond $2.5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving net income is vital for investor confidence. It reflects the company's financial health.
Supportive ifNet income for common shares becomes positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income for common shares stays negative in Q3 2026.