Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.22+11.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.03 → 1.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARLO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand AI-powered services for aging-in-place care | A supporting condition in Arlo Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain expansion through acquisitions. | Intact | No progress or setbacks in AI service expansion | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Business Highlights • Acquisition of Aloe Care Health to accelerate the expansion of our AI-powered services for aging-in-place care in collaboration with health providers, patients, and their families.” “• Announced expanded partnership between Aloe Care Health and Home Helpers Home Care to deploy a new AI-powered wellness service.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with recurring subscription revenue and improving profitability, rather than a mature income story. The long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on track and recent financial performance strong, but the risk level is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure labels ARLO cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.73 premium versus peers; the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is -0.14, and the priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, suggesting the current setup is not flagged as unusually vulnerable to unmet expectations.
Near-term results have shown growth in revenue, paid accounts, and subscriptions, alongside higher gross margin and positive operating income. Management has raised guidance, and the latest reported earnings were in line; the near-term miss-risk flag is quiet, though the evidence notes a past deep miss and smaller-company risk. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued subscription and paid-account growth, further progress in margins, and management delivering on raised guidance. A reversal in guidance is the main company-specific downside scenario; rate cuts and stabilization among technology peers are possible sector tailwinds, but are not assured.
For a 1-to-3-year view, ARLO has evidence of real operating progress, but its expensive overall valuation and elevated risk make continued execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross profit margin near 48% | A primary condition in Arlo Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=48% next quarter. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 46% next quarter | Gross margin: 48.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=48% next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 202648.234864 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income grows to at least $15M quarterly | Profit margins improved to 48.3%, and net income rose to nearly $15M. | Intact | Net income falls below $10M next quarter | Net income: $3.028M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 20263,028,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 6% annually | A primary condition in Arlo Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue: $155.937M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 2026155,937,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.98 → $1.03 · observed estimates
$0.61B → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.98 | $613,545,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.98 | $613,542,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.98 | $613,545,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.98 | $613,545,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.98 | $613,545,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.98 | $613,267,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.98 | $615,896,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.98 | $615,896,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.98 | $615,896,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.04 | $622,067,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.03 | $624,395,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.03 | $624,395,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.98 | $613,264,943 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.03 | $624,397,786 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.