Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.97+3.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARLO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Arlo Technologies, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to t…
Why it matters: Lower guidance shows slower growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be $140 million or less.
Less concerning ifManagement expects Q3 revenue to be more than $150 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A negative EPS could indicate financial distress.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP EPS below $0.00.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP EPS at or above $0.00.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA margin may mean higher costs or problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 19% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 20% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost control and pricing power. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifGross margin improved by more than 400 basis points compared to last year.
Worry ifGross margin improved by less than 400 basis points compared to last year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $492 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,223 loss on $10,000 · 42.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More paid accounts show more customer adoption and loyalty.
Supportive ifCumulative paid accounts reach 6.5 million or more.
Worry ifPaid accounts stay below 6 million.
Why it matters: High gross margins show the company runs well. A drop might mean higher costs.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin for Q2 remains above 48%.
Less concerning ifGAAP gross margin for Q2 falls below 48%.
Why it matters: This acquisition aims to expand AI-powered services. Success could drive future growth.
Supportive ifA press release shows more money or more customer accounts from Aloe Care services.
Worry ifThere is no clear effect on revenue or customer accounts from the Aloe Care deal.
Why it matters: Slower ARR growth may show problems in keeping or getting subscribers. This can hurt future revenue.
Worry ifARR growth below 15.6% for Q3.
Less concerning ifARR growth at or above 15.6% for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin is over 20% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 18% in Q2.
Why it matters: Growing AI services can create new income and help Arlo compete in smart home security.
Supportive ifLook for new AI services or partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new AI services or partnerships will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows that Arlo is managing costs well. A return to losses could raise concerns.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 remains positive, above $0.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 turns negative.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows financial health and the chance to invest in growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $25 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 2026 falls below $20 million.
Why it matters: This purchase could improve Arlo's services and help it grow.
Watch forGood news on Aloe Care's integration and growth in AI services.
Also watch forProblems with Aloe Care's integration or slow growth in AI services.
Why it matters: A decline in growth would signal weakness in Arlo's subscription model, a key revenue driver.
Worry ifQ3 subscriptions and services revenue growth below 19%.
Less concerning ifQ3 subscriptions and services revenue growth at or above 19%.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin means costs are rising or prices are under pressure. This affects profits.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin below 48.2%.
Less concerning ifGAAP gross margin at or above 48.2%.