Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Armata Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARMP)
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.00-4.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARMP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strengthen board and leadership | A supporting condition in Armata Pharmaceuticals Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Successful integration of new board members by mid-2026. | Intact | Failure to appoint or integrate new board members by mid-2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making clinical development story, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: progress toward a Phase 3 study is evident, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and confidence is low.
The evidence snapshot gives no valuation measure or direct account of market expectations, so how much optimism or concern is already reflected is unclear. The business is loss-making, which limits what can be concluded about value from current earnings.
Over the multi-year view, fundamentals depend on advancing AP-SA02 into the planned Phase 3 superiority study; management has cited this priority for three straight quarters and reports ongoing preparations and regulatory progress. Near term, earnings risk is elevated after recent misses and erratic surprises, despite an August earnings beat. Credit agreements support capital access, while increased term debt and the CFO transition remain relevant context.
The central swing factor is whether ARMP advances AP-SA02 into Phase 3 in the second half of 2026, as management has planned. A guidance cut on the next call would be a negative signal, while continued strength among major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum. A weakening jobs trend could add pressure to cyclical names, though the snapshot does not establish the size of that effect for ARMP.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ARMP’s thesis is a high-risk clinical development story with meaningful execution and funding questions, partly offset by reported regulatory progress and better sector context. The evidence remains limited and low confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains capital access through credit agreements to fund operations. |
| Intact |
| Loss of credit agreements or liquidity constraints during FY26 |
Credit agreement active May 2026 credit agreement signed; no liquidity constraints reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “These funds are a continuation of the previously announced award from the DoW, bringing the total funding received to date under this award to $28.7 million, and are intended to support activities related to the Company’s continued preparation and readiness for its planned Phase 3 clinical study.” “ Financial ● On May 12, 2026, entered into a secured credit agreement with Innoviva Strategic Opportunities LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Innoviva, Inc., Armata’s largest shareholder, for a loan of $25.0 million that will mature on January 11, 2029.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating losses and cash flow management near recent levels | Armata focuses on managing operating losses near -$8.8M and cash flow around -$5.8M to sustain development. | Broken | Operating income or cash from operations falls below -$8.8M or -$5.8M respectively next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Loss from operations for the three months ended June 30, 2026 was approximately $10.3 million, compared to a loss from operations of approximately $6.8 million for the comparable period in 2025.” “Loss from operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026 was approximately $8.8 million, compared to a loss from operations of approximately $8.2 million for the comparable period in 2025.” Operating income was $-10.312 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.34 → $-1.45 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.34 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.40 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.45 | $2,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.