Armata Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARMP)
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.84+5.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARMP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARMP — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-20
Chief Financial Officer — David House: David House was promoted to Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Positive FDA feedback would support the planned Phase 3 study. It confirms the study's design and regulatory path.
Supportive ifThe FDA gives good feedback on Armata's Phase 3 plan.
Worry ifThe FDA has big concerns about the Phase 3 plan.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is slowing in the healthcare sector. A rebound would signal stronger demand.
Supportive ifArmata's revenue growth shows an increase back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New funding is vital for Armata to support its clinical studies and operations. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifArmata secures new funding or grants beyond the current $28.7 million from the DoD.
Worry ifArmata does not get new funding. This affects its ability to continue clinical studies.
Why it matters: A deal on the pediatric study plan would help Armata grow its market.
Supportive ifFDA agrees on the Initial Pediatric Study Plan for AP-SA02.
Worry ifFDA does not agree on the pediatric study plan, delaying expansion efforts.
Why it matters: New leaders can change company strategy and performance. More changes may mean instability.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new key hires or promotions in the leadership team.
Worry ifNo changes in leaders or bad news about current executives.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 3 study is crucial for Armata's lead drug. It could lead to FDA approval and new treatment options.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 study for AP-SA02 begins as planned in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe Phase 3 study is delayed beyond 2026 or not initiated.
Why it matters: Changes in operating losses show how well the company is doing. They also show money spent on drug development.
Worry ifOperating losses drop from $10.3 million in Q2 2026 to under $10 million in later quarters.
Less concerning ifOperating losses may go over $10.3 million in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Updates on the credit agreement will show if the company can access funds.
Watch forAnnouncement of more funding or good terms from the May 2026 credit agreement.
Also watch forNo updates or bad news about the credit agreement.
Why it matters: Watching cash levels is important. It affects Armata's ability to fund operations and trials.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $4.0 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents stay stable or rise above $5.0 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing negative cash flow signals financial stress. Investors need to monitor this closely.
Worry ifCash flow from operations improves to less than -$5M in the next two quarters.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains worse than -$6M for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Getting funding is important for the Phase 3 study and for operations.
Supportive ifArmata announces new funding sources or grants to support the Phase 3 study.
Worry ifArmata does not get more funding. This affects the timeline for the Phase 3 study.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show if Armata can keep running and pay for trials. This affects financial health.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents go up from $4.8 million after the credit deal.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents go down from $4.8 million in the next reports.
Why it matters: Positive FDA feedback would confirm that Armata is on track for its Phase 3 study. This is key for future funding and development.
Supportive ifFDA approves the Phase 3 protocol. There are no major changes.
Worry ifFDA requests significant changes to the Phase 3 protocol.
Why it matters: Getting more non-dilutive funding is important for Armata's cash flow. It helps reduce the need for equity financing.
Supportive ifArmata shares news about new funding agreements or grants. These will not reduce ownership.
Worry ifNo new funding is secured, leading to potential cash flow issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$344 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,117 loss on $10,000 · 11.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,459 loss on $10,000 · 74.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.