Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Archrock, Inc. (AROC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.60-7.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.05 → 2.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AROC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined debt management and capital returns | A supporting condition in Archrock, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Redeem high-cost debt and increase dividends. | Intact | Fails to redeem high-cost debt or cut dividends in FY26 | Dividend increased (Sep 2026); no debt redemption data News confirms dividend increase and contract wins. Earnings beat in Q3 2026. No negative signals regarding debt or dividends. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AROC is an energy-sector business with a multi-year view tied to profitable operations, high utilization, and cash generation. The thesis is intact, but near-term execution risk remains meaningful given recent earnings misses and a watch-level risk assessment.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations are close to the model’s view. Confidence in that valuation assessment is low, and the evidence characterizes the current pricing as justified rather than fragile.
Near-term results may remain uneven: AROC recently missed earnings, and the evidence flags a high-miss-rate industry and consecutive misses. On the multi-year view, revenue, margins, operating income, and cash generation show progress, while utilization remains high despite slightly lower operating horsepower.
The next earnings call is a key swing factor, especially whether management cuts guidance. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the energy-sector tailwind, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AROC’s thesis rests on sustaining profitable operations and cash generation while managing earnings volatility and sector exposure. Recent fundamentals support an intact view, but the near-term earnings record calls for caution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Positive adjusted free cash flow |
| Free cash flow turned positive to $91.9 million in Q1. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below zero in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Contract operations gross margin near 72% | Profit margin rose to 72% in contract operations. | Broken | gross margin falls below 70% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 6% YoY | A primary condition in Archrock, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -3.04% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-3.038203 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.40 → $2.06 · observed estimates
$1.66B → $1.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.14 | $1,660,072,891 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.40 | $1,657,687,470 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.37 | $1,656,948,070 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.37 | $1,656,948,070 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.37 | $1,656,948,070 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.25 | $1,638,548,070 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.25 | $1,638,548,070 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.25 | $1,638,548,070 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.08 | $1,646,433,391 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.05 | $1,634,956,723 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.05 | $1,634,146,851 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.05 | $1,634,096,351 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.06 | $1,633,596,351 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.