Archrock, Inc. (AROC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.69+0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AROC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
AROC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 4, 2026, Archrock, Inc. (“Archrock”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
Why it matters: Growth in contract operations revenue is key for Archrock's performance and profits.
Supportive ifContract operations revenue goes over $335 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifContract operations revenue falls below $325 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in dividend coverage may show financial strain. This can affect investor sentiment.
Worry ifDividend coverage remains above 3.0x for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifDividend coverage falls below 3.0x for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Mohit Singh's experience could influence Archrock's financial strategy and performance. His leadership may drive growth.
Supportive ifLook for positive changes in financial numbers or plans after July 6, 2026.
Worry ifThere are no clear signs of better financial results or plans after the change.
Why it matters: A higher leverage ratio may show poor debt management and financial health.
Worry ifLeverage ratio exceeds 2.6x in future reports.
Less concerning ifLeverage ratio remains at or below 2.6x.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,682 loss on $10,000 · 26.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows strong operations. It can help investor feelings.
Supportive ifNet income for 2026 exceeds $290 million.
Worry ifNet income for 2026 falls below $290 million.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans may change how money is spent and affect growth.
Watch forManagement shares new capital plans that could boost growth.
Also watch forNo changes in capital plans are shared after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Archrock can return cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. This shows financial strength.
Supportive ifTotal shareholder returns are higher than $44.3 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifTotal shareholder returns are lower than $44.3 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means improved efficiency and helps growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases above $200 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $150 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A smooth transition keeps investor confidence strong. It also helps with stability.
Watch forArchrock announces a new CFO before the end of 2026.
Also watch forThe search for a new CFO takes longer than expected, causing uncertainty.
Why it matters: The new CFO's effect on finances may show a change in strategy or cost control.
Watch forNet income increases in the next quarter after Mohit Singh's appointment.
Also watch forNet income declines or remains stagnant in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High SG&A expenses could impact profitability. Investors need to see if management can control costs.
Worry ifSG&A expenses in Q2 2026 do not exceed $45 million.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses exceed $50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good capital spending can boost growth and help shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about new investments or purchases. These support the growth plan.
Worry ifManagement says they will pause or cut back on spending.
Why it matters: New plans could help future growth and improve operations.
Supportive ifThe new CFO, Mohit Singh, will announce specific growth plans.
Worry ifNo new strategic plans will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: As the new CFO, Singh's decisions could shape Archrock's financial direction and growth strategy. His past experience may lead to new initiatives.
Supportive ifNew plans or cost-saving actions can improve profit margins.
Worry ifNo big changes or new plans are expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A tighter EBITDA range may show cost pressures. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is tightened to a range of $865 million to $885 million.
Less concerning ifGuidance remains unchanged or is raised above $885 million.