Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.57+0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AROW
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 the market pays 2.8× p/b — above the 1.2× p/b peer median but in line with its own 3× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $45 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $43–$46. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $44.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $69.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $129.94 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $31.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
$43.00 – $46.00 (median $44.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-09-01
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
| $17.28 |
| 1.2 |
| 13.93 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $44.37 | 11.7 | 3.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $44.12 | 10.9 | 4.05 | ntm analyst | high |
| PEG | 12M | $90.75 | 28.4 | 3.19 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $21.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $38.33 | 11.9 | 3.21 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $50.70 | 11.7 | 4.34 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $58.35 | 10.9 | 5.36 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $138.02 | 28.4 | 4.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $55.41 | 11.7 | 4.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $77.17 | 10.9 | 7.08 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $182.53 | 28.4 | 6.42 | Analyst | medium |