Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.57+0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AROW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
AROW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Arrow Financial Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release containing unaudited financial information and accompanying discussion for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Changes in the loan provision reflect credit health. High provisions could signal risks.
Worry ifLoan provision stays stable or goes down in Q3 2026. This shows good credit quality.
Less concerning ifLoan provision goes up a lot in Q3 2026. This raises worries about credit risk.
Why it matters: Management thinks the acquisition will lead to big EPS growth. Good results would back this view.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS is over $0.71, showing growth after the acquisition.
Worry ifQ3 EPS is under $0.66, showing that challenges continue.
Why it matters: How well the integration goes will affect EPS growth. Investors want to see efficiency and customer loyalty.
Supportive ifManagement says they will share integration progress and good customer feedback by the end of 2026.
Worry ifIntegration issues may lead to customer complaints. They could also cause delays in operations.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect Arrow's performance.
Worry ifArrow's revenue growth drops below 10% year over year in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 10% year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how much money the company makes. This helps us see how well the company is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Net income dropped in Q2 due to merger costs and credit reserves. A recovery signals strong operational health.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $11 million, showing recovery from Q2.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 stays below $11 million, indicating ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Finishing the Adirondack Bancorp integration is important. It helps gain benefits from the deal. Delays may slow growth.
Watch forIntegration completed on schedule by the end of 2026.
Also watch forIf there are delays, integration may not finish by 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below the median could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect Arrow's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last three years.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: The outcome of this litigation could impact the merger with Adirondack Bancorp. It may affect investor confidence and the merger's success.
Worry ifA court ruling that favors Arrow Financial Corp. in the litigation.
Less concerning ifA court decision that hurts the merger agreement.
Why it matters: EPS growth will show if the acquisition is boosting profits as expected. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifEPS for Q3 2026 exceeds $0.71, showing positive impact from the acquisition.
Worry ifEPS for Q3 2026 remains below $0.71, indicating the acquisition did not boost profits.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong finances and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Watch forThe Board declares the dividend at $0.30 per share for Q4 2026.
Also watch forThe Board cuts the dividend below $0.30 per share, indicating financial strain.
Why it matters: Good integration is key to getting the benefits of the acquisition. Delays can hurt results.
Watch forThe systems are integrated on time and without major problems.
Also watch forIntegration has major delays or issues. These affect customer service.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $253 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,258 loss on $10,000 · 12.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.