Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.61-2.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.31 → 4.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AROW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Adirondack Bancorp | A primary condition in Arrow Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration with EPS accretion by end 2026. | Improving | Acquisition fails or does not add EPS accretion by FY26 end | Qualitative: OCC approval received, Q3 earnings beat OCC approved merger in June 2026; Q3 2026 earnings beat expectations; Q2 2026 missed. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with an acquisition-driven growth story, but its current profile is fragile rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still developing, and the evidence snapshot rates confidence as low.
The valuation model shows a durable premium versus peers, but confidence in that estimate is low and the overall value assessment is neutral. The evidence says weak execution quality is not fully reflected in the priced-in fragility measure, so the expectations gap is difficult to judge with confidence.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and a sharp deterioration in company momentum point to uneven results; the latest reported quarter also had lower GAAP net income than the prior quarter, with merger-related expenses affecting results. Over the multi-year view, management remains on track for about 95 percent of anticipated cost savings by 2027-Q1, and reported organic loan growth and higher net interest income show progress, though much of the income increase came from the acquisition.
The thesis depends on completing system conversion, realizing planned cost savings, and continuing to grow lending without further earnings misses or guidance cuts. Rate changes and broader financial-sector results are additional swing factors: the evidence flags rate cuts as a risk and stronger earnings and guidance from sector peers as a possible support.
For the next one to three years, AROW’s case combines acquisition benefits and loan growth with fragile earnings quality, volatile execution, and low evidence confidence. Whether integration gains translate into steadier results remains the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends stay steady at $0.30 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend falls below $0.30 per share quarterly |
Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.30 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Earnings per share at least $2.65 in 2026 | Dividends stay steady at $0.30 per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.65 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.66 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.65 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.66 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.33 → $4.29 · observed estimates
$0.24B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.33 | $243,013,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.33 | $242,333,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.33 | $242,333,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.33 | $242,333,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.33 | $242,333,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.29 | $239,946,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.31 | $239,965,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.31 | $240,971,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.31 | $241,190,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.31 | $241,190,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.31 | $241,190,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.29 | $241,014,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.29 | $241,014,333 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.