ARXIS INC (ARXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.62+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARXS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 90.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARXS — capital allocation — This Current Report on Form 8-K is not an offer to sell or the solicitation o…
Dated 2026-08-18
This Current Report on Form 8-K is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares of Class A common stock or other securities of the Company.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for Arxis. It helps them grow in key markets. If they integrate well, it could boost revenue and profits.
Supportive ifArxis has completed buying Omnetics. They have added it to their business.
Worry ifThe acquisition might face delays. It could also fail to get regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Finishing the Omnetics deal would make Arxis' products better in key markets.
Supportive ifThe Omnetics acquisition will close by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe deal might be late or not happen because of regulatory issues.
Why it matters: This acquisition would show that the company is growing. It is part of their plan.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm the Omnetics acquisition is complete.
Worry ifNo news or delays about the Omnetics acquisition.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows there is still demand. It also shows that acquisitions are working. This supports the raised full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is reported at or above 25% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 20% year-over-year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $512 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,584 loss on $10,000 · 15.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA target shows good performance and cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is between $720 million and $730 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $720 million. This shows problems with operations.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows strong demand and good operations. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue falls within the raised guidance range of $1.96B to $1.98B.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: Tracking revenue growth is key to understanding if the company is on track. Meeting guidance signals strong performance.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at least $470 million, showing progress towards the full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $450 million. This shows challenges in meeting guidance.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and acquisitions. This is key for Arxis' growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $150 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the revenue guidance of $1.86B to $1.88B shows strong business momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $465 million. This shows growth is on track.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $465 million. This points to a slowdown.
Why it matters: New acquisitions would show growth plans and market expansion.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one additional acquisition by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This deal could boost Arxis's skills in defense and aerospace. It may drive growth.
Watch forMagCanica's integration may bring new contracts. This could help revenue growth in Electronics.
Also watch forNo major revenue growth or new contracts from MagCanica after the deal.
Why it matters: A stable margin shows good cost control. It also shows how well they operate. This shows the success of their recent purchases.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 40% for Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 38% for Q3.
Why it matters: Expanding precision sensing is a key goal. It could improve Arxis' market position and product range.
Supportive ifArxis has new contracts or products in precision sensing.
Worry ifThere are no news or delays in precision sensing work.