ARXIS INC (ARXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.52-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARXS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARXS — capital allocation — This Current Report on Form 8-K is not an offer to sell or the solicitation o…
Dated 2026-08-18
This Current Report on Form 8-K is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares of Class A common stock or other securities of the Company.
Why it matters: Arxis completed six deals in 2026, but the latest release does not break out their separate results. Their earnings contribution will test the deal plan.
Supportive ifArxis says these deals added revenue and adjusted EBITDA. It did not cut 2027 guidance.
Worry ifArxis reports results or costs from these deals that fall short of plan, or cuts 2027 guidance due to integration issues.
Why it matters: Arxis set 2027 revenue guidance at $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion, with 10% to 15% organic growth. Q4 results will test that path.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue grows from a year ago. Management keeps 2027 revenue guidance at $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion, with 10% to 15% organic growth.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls year over year, or management cuts 2027 revenue guidance below $2.4 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,204 loss on $10,000 · 22.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.