Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Associated Bank (ASB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.54-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.34 → 3.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $3 in FY26 | Earnings per share are expected near $3 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.97 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASB is a growth-oriented regional bank with robust earnings quality, but recent financial performance is weak. Its long-term thesis is on watch: confidence is high, yet performance trails its industry cohort and recent price reaction has been muted.
ASB is assessed as cheap versus peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning expectations are close to the model’s baseline. The evidence marks pricing as justified and fragility as low, with no specific signs that expectations are unusually vulnerable.
Through 2026-Q3, revenue and period-end loans grew, and management completed the American National conversion. Integration costs remained, though noninterest expense decreased from Q2 to Q3; the $100 million repurchase authorization was also completed. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but a history of recent misses and weak relative performance remain watch points.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while Federal Reserve rate cuts could weigh on ASB and the wider financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers HDB, IBN, and USB would support sector momentum. The thesis also depends on sustaining organic growth while managing integration costs under a neutral management assessment.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ASB’s growth delivery and completed integration milestone support the long-term thesis, but weak recent performance and sensitivity to guidance and rates keep it on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Associated Bank's published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration by end of 2026. |
| Intact |
| Integration delays or issues slow growth |
Integration on track for end-2026 target Acquisition conversion timing confirmed in May 2026; Q3 2026 earnings show strong performance with no integration issues reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above -8% next year | A primary condition in Associated Bank's published investment case. The stated target is >= -8% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below -8% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $100M share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Associated Bank's published investment case. The stated target is Complete $100M buyback. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or not completed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.29 → $3.42 · observed estimates
$1.91B → $1.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.29 | $1,913,453,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.28 | $1,903,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.28 | $1,903,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.30 | $1,920,303,057 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.29 | $1,915,993,140 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.29 | $1,915,993,140 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.31 | $1,918,364,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.31 | $1,918,364,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.31 | $1,918,364,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.31 | $1,918,364,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.31 | $1,918,364,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.32 | $1,918,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.32 | $1,918,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.32 | $1,918,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.32 | $1,918,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.32 | $1,918,507,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.33 | $1,920,900,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.33 | $1,920,900,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.33 | $1,920,900,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.31 | $1,922,674,486 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.33 | $1,925,157,143 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.33 | $1,925,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.33 | $1,925,175,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.33 | $1,923,912,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.34 | $1,924,200,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.34 | $1,924,200,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.34 | $1,924,200,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.34 | $1,924,200,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.34 | $1,924,200,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.34 | $1,924,200,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.36 | $1,928,450,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.36 | $1,928,450,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.36 | $1,927,562,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.36 | $1,927,562,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.37 | $1,927,525,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.39 | $1,932,925,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.39 | $1,932,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.39 | $1,932,925,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.39 | $1,932,175,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.39 | $1,932,175,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.38 | $1,933,037,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.38 | $1,933,037,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.42 | $1,933,037,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.42 | $1,933,037,500 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.42 | $1,936,150,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.42 | $1,936,150,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.42 | $1,936,150,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.42 | $1,936,150,000 | 8 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.