Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Ashland Global (ASH)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$76.28-0.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.88 → 4.95 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $385-$400 million Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026 | Profit margins target adjusted EBITDA near $385-$400 million. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $385 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “4 Financial Outlook Ashland is reaffirming its full year fiscal 2026 sales guidance of $1,835 to $1,870 million and its Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $385 to $400 million.” “Financial Outlook Ashland is updating its full-year fiscal 2026 sales guidance to a range of $1,835 to $1,870 million and its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $385 to $400 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASH is a recovery-oriented industrial business with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven earnings compounder, since the evidence still classifies it as loss-making. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from cautious to mixed, though confidence is medium.
ASH trades at a 39% premium to peers, with the valuation tagged as justified and an expectations gap of 5%, pointing to limited room between current expectations and the evidence-based view. The snapshot shows low fragility, but does not establish that the shares are cheap or inexpensive relative to peers.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA have improved from the first to the third fiscal quarter, and management has reaffirmed its full-year guidance; free cash flow conversion has also been above 50%. The main risks are mixed delivery on the EBITDA goal and a run of earnings misses, so guidance execution remains important despite the sector tailwind.
The next key test is whether ASH maintains its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance; a cut would weaken the near-term setup. Over the multi-year view, sector momentum depends in part on bellwethers such as LIN, ECL, and SHW continuing to report strong results and guidance, while recent agreement announcements introduce additional capital-allocation developments to monitor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ASH’s thesis rests on continued operating recovery, cash conversion, and delivery against reaffirmed guidance, alongside a supportive Materials backdrop. The evidence is mixed, and the premium to peers makes execution central to the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain 50% free cash flow conversion of Adjusted EBITDA | Free cash flow conversion is focused at 50% of adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | free cash flow conversion falls below 40% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Updated guidance • Sales: $1,835 to $1,870 million (no change) • Adjusted EBITDA: $385 million to $400 million (no change) • Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share Excluding Intangibles Amortization: low-to-mid single-digit growth • Ongoing Free Cash Flow Conversion: greater than 50 percent of Adjusted EBITDA with capital expenditures of approximately $~90 million “As we look ahead, our full year expectations reflect the underlying strength of our portfolio and the momentum we are seeing across the business,” concluded Guillermo Novo, chair and chief executive officer, Ashland.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve $1.835-$1.87 billion revenue in fiscal 2026 | Ashland aims to grow revenue to about $1.85 billion in fiscal 2026. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $1.835 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $497M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.835 billion and <= $1.87 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 2026497,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third-quarter sales were $497 million, up seven percent from $463 million in the prior-year quarter.” “Second-quarter sales were $482 million, up one percent from $479 million in the prior-year quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.90 → $4.95 · observed estimates
$2.01B → $2.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $4.90 | $2,008,228,904 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.90 | $2,008,228,904 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.90 | $2,008,228,904 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.90 | $2,008,228,904 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.90 | $2,008,228,904 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.88 | $2,004,807,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.95 | $2,002,682,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.95 | $2,002,682,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.95 | $2,002,682,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.95 | $2,002,682,563 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.95 | $2,002,622,047 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.95 | $2,008,219,597 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.95 | $2,008,219,597 | 2 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.